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DTSTART:20070311T020000
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DTSTAMP:20260901T135721
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20261027T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20261027T125000
SUMMARY:Workshop / Seminar:The Devil is in the Tail: Macroeconomic Tail Risk Expectations of Firms
DESCRIPTION:This paper examines novel survey evidence on firms’ beliefs about macroeconomic tail risk and their role in investment decisions. In a large survey of firms\, I elicit the subjective probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn and firms’ exposure to such events. Using observational and experimental variation\, I find that a higher probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn substantially lowers investment\, particularly for more exposed firms\, beyond what can be explained by changes in firms’ subjective first and second moments. In a heterogeneous firm model calibrated to the survey evidence\, tail risk concerns make fiscal policy particularly effective for stabilizing investment.
UID:149567-21906712@events.umich.edu
URL:https://events.umich.edu/event/149567
CLASS:PUBLIC
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CATEGORIES:Economics,Macroeconomics,seminar
LOCATION:North Quad - 4325
CONTACT:
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