{ "149567-21906712": { "datetime_modified":"20260901T135721", "datetime_start":"20261027T113000", "datetime_end":"20261027T125000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-10-27", "date_end":"2026-10-27", "time_start":"11:30:00", "time_end":"12:50:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"The Devil is in the Tail: Macroeconomic Tail Risk Expectations of Firms", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"The Devil is in the Tail: Macroeconomic Tail Risk Expectations of Firms: Manuel Menkhoff, University of Copenhagen", "event_subtitle":"Manuel Menkhoff, University of Copenhagen", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"This paper examines novel survey evidence on firms\u2019 beliefs about macroeconomic tail risk and their role in investment decisions. In a large survey of firms, I elicit the subjective probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn and firms\u2019 exposure to such events. Using observational and experimental variation, I find that a higher probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn substantially lowers investment, particularly for more exposed firms, beyond what can be explained by changes in firms\u2019 subjective first and second moments. In a heterogeneous firm model calibrated to the survey evidence, tail risk concerns make fiscal policy particularly effective for stabilizing investment.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"149567-21906712@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/149567", "building_id":"1005177", "building_name":"North Quad", "campus_maps_id":"553", "room":"4325", "location_name":"North Quad", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Economics","Macroeconomics","seminar"], "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Economics", "group_id":"3302", "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149567_original-2.png" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21906712 } , "151823-21912230": { "datetime_modified":"20261022T010422", "datetime_start":"20261029T130000", "datetime_end":"20261029T142000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-10-29", "date_end":"2026-10-29", "time_start":"13:00:00", "time_end":"14:20:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Identification and Optimal Reserve Prices in English Auctions, with an Application to Art", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Identification and Optimal Reserve Prices in English Auctions, with an Application to Art: Kirill Ponomarev, University of Chicago", "event_subtitle":"Kirill Ponomarev, University of Chicago", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"We develop a partial-identification approach for English auctions with private values, auction-level heterogeneity unobserved by the analyst, and a potentially unknown number of bidders. Our framework permits restrictions on dependence among bidders\u2019 valuations away from the extreme cases of independent private values and perfect correlation, yielding sharp and informative bounds on the distribution of the highest valuation and the seller\u2019s expected profit. We formulate reserve-price choice as a minimax-regret problem and derive tractable solutions to two relaxations of this problem. We apply our method to a new dataset covering more than 3,500 lots auctioned by Christie\u2019s and Sotheby\u2019s. For modern art sold in New York City with pre-sale estimates between $1 million and $10 million, we find that setting the reserve price 37 percent above the sellers projected value from retaining an unsold lot increases expected profit by approximately $150,000 to $489,000 per lot, equivalent to 27 to 87 percent of average realized profit.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"151823-21912230@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/151823", "building_id":"1005177", "building_name":"North Quad", "campus_maps_id":"553", "room":"4300", "location_name":"North Quad", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Econometrics","Economics","Metrics","seminar"], "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Economics", "group_id":"3302", "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151823_original-1.jpg" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21912230 } , "151851-21912270": { "datetime_modified":"20261019T093129", "datetime_start":"20261030T100000", "datetime_end":"20261030T112000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-10-30", "date_end":"2026-10-30", "time_start":"10:00:00", "time_end":"11:20:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Designing Electric Vehicle Subsidies for Equity and Efficiency", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Designing Electric Vehicle Subsidies for Equity and Efficiency: Hyuk-soo Kwon, University of Chicago", "event_subtitle":"Hyuk-soo Kwon, University of Chicago", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"Electric vehicle (EV) subsidies have been a central part of global clean energy policy but have raised concerns about regressivity. We evaluate equity-focused EV subsidy designs\u2014buyer income limits, price limits, and used EV subsidies\u2014as implemented in many countries, including through the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). We show that in a simple theoretical model, resale price changes can make new and used EV subsidies economically equivalent. Using a novel bunching estimator exploiting the IRA used EV tax credit\u2019s transaction price limit, we estimate that the credit indeed raised EV resale prices\u2014but only after the credits could be paid immediately at the dealership. Using a detailed structural model of U.S. new and used vehicle markets, we show that new EV subsidies accelerate used EV scrappage instead of only diverting from gasoline vehicles, reducing environmental benefits. Partially for this reason, the modeled marginal value of public funds (MVPF) of the IRA EV tax credits is only 0.88. Income-limited new EV subsidies have relatively high welfare-weighted MVPF.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"151851-21912270@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/151851", "building_id":"1005177", "building_name":"North Quad", "campus_maps_id":"553", "room":"4300", "location_name":"North Quad", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Business","Economics","Energy","Environment","Industrial Organization","seminar"], "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Economics", "group_id":"3302", "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151851_original-1.jpg" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21912270 } , "149502-21906529": { "datetime_modified":"20261015T111121", "datetime_start":"20261030T143000", "datetime_end":"20261030T155000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-10-30", "date_end":"2026-10-30", "time_start":"14:30:00", "time_end":"15:50:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"The Robust Properties of Economies with Endogenous Production Networks (joint with Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, Roberto Corrao, and Joel Flynn)", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"The Robust Properties of Economies with Endogenous Production Networks (joint with Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, Roberto Corrao, and Joel Flynn): Giacomo Lanzani, University of California, Berkeley", "event_subtitle":"Giacomo Lanzani, University of California, Berkeley", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"We characterize equilibria in a canonical class of economies with endogenous production networks, showing that log-prices equal a min-max over networks of a primitive affine function of log-productivities. This formula captures how resilience and fragility interact: the \u201cmin\u201d reflects resilience from substituting suppliers, while the \u201cmax\u201d reflects fragility from complementarity-induced rigidity. Applying these results, we generalize Hulten's theorem, finding that local Domar weights are generally insufficient to describe propagation of even small shocks. Moreover, we characterize how microeconomic volatility affects GDP, finding that smooth changes in Domar weights overstate its adverse effects by omitting option value from switching suppliers.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"149502-21906529@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/149502", "building_id":"1005177", "building_name":"North Quad", "campus_maps_id":"553", "room":"4300", "location_name":"North Quad", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Economics","seminar","Theory"], "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Economics", "group_id":"3302", "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149502_original-1.png" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21906529 } , "149332-21906243": { "datetime_modified":"20261012T104103", "datetime_start":"20261102T160000", "datetime_end":"20261102T172000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-11-02", "date_end":"2026-11-02", "time_start":"16:00:00", "time_end":"17:20:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Easy to Collect, Costly to Bear: Mobile Money Taxation and Network Spillovers in Tanzania", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Easy to Collect, Costly to Bear: Mobile Money Taxation and Network Spillovers in Tanzania: Youssef Benzarti, University of California, Santa Barbara", "event_subtitle":"Youssef Benzarti, University of California, Santa Barbara", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"This paper provides evidence that a tax on mobile money transactions shrinks its base by an order of magnitude more than taxes on income or turnover do, that the base responds to whether it is taxed rather than to how much, and that the damage spreads through the payment network to users and payments the law never taxed. First, using the complete transaction records of Tanzania\u2019s three largest providers around the introduction of a notched levy on person-to-person transfers and cash withdrawals in July 2021, we show that the levy reduces the volume of taxed transactions by 23 percent and their average value by 13 percent relative to untaxed transactions on the same platform, an elasticity with respect to the net-of-tax price of about 10. Second, we show that a cut of about 30 percent seven weeks later brings none of it back, nor do two further cuts, while the removal of the levy on transfers in 2023 does, slowly. Third, we document that relationships between senders and receivers survive at two-thirds the normal rate, that new ones form at less than half the pre-levy pace, and that senders stop rerouting activity around recipients who go quiet; none of these margins recovers when the tax rate falls. Fourth, we find that the levy reaches activity it does not tax, as wages paid into wallets fall by a fifth, and that senders of every size cut back by a similar share, whether or not they have a bank account. Fifth, we estimate that the levy destroys 47 cents of surplus for every shilling it raises, several times the cost of a value-added tax in comparable settings.", "occurrence_notes":"For those not familiar with the academic and residential towers of North Quad, please refer to this link for wayfindng guidance: https:\/\/lsa.umich.edu\/content\/dam\/econ-assets\/Econdocs\/NQ%20Econ%20Department%20Directions.pdf", "guid":"149332-21906243@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/149332", "building_id":"1005177", "building_name":"North Quad", "campus_maps_id":"553", "room":"4325", "location_name":"North Quad", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Economics","Public Finance","seminar"], "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Economics", "group_id":"3302", "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149332_original-1.png", 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Exploiting the staggered roll-out of MIDs across Texas counties, together with administrative data on attorney employment and caseloads, jail populations, and newly compiled arrest and prison records, we show that introducing management concentrates cases among a smaller set of local lawyers. Management reduces the use of bench warrants and the probability of imprisonment. Sentences among those incarcerated lengthen as imprisonment falls, implying that the defendants diverted from prison would have served relatively short terms. 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