{ "149558-21906702": { "datetime_modified":"20260907T234737", "datetime_start":"20260915T113000", "datetime_end":"20260915T125000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-09-15", "date_end":"2026-09-15", "time_start":"11:30:00", "time_end":"12:50:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Why Didn't the U.S. Unemployment Rate Rise at the End of WWII? (with Shigergu Fujita)", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Why Didn't the U.S. Unemployment Rate Rise at the End of WWII? (with Shigergu Fujita): Valerie Ramey, Stanford University", "event_subtitle":"Valerie Ramey, Stanford University", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"This paper investigates why the U.S. unemployment rate rose only a few percentage points despite the dramatic decline in government spending and other upheaval at the end of World War II. Using a new longitudinal data set based on archival sources and government surveys, we study the many facets of this question. Our findings suggest the following answers. First, the dramatic decline in government spending led to a significantly smaller decrease in GDP than predicted by standard Keynesian models. Instead, private job creation surged as private activity was \u201ccrowded in\u201d by the fall in government spending. Second, even accounting for the smaller fall in GDP, the unemployment rate rose much less than predicted by Okun\u2019s Law. We develop a new decomposition method that reveals how unusual movements in labor force participation rates, hours worked, and productivity led to a breakdown in Okun\u2019s law during the 1940s. Third, the U.S. labor market worked with astounding efficiency: despite large sectoral shifts at the end of the war, most of the workers who separated from their jobs moved directly into new jobs without experiencing unemployment. All of these factors lined up to create a post-war boom despite the largest fall in government spending in U.S. history.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"149558-21906702@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/149558", "building_id":"1005177", "building_name":"North Quad", "campus_maps_id":"553", "room":"4325", "location_name":"North Quad", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Economics","Macroeconomics","seminar"], "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Economics", "group_id":"3302", "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_149558_original-2.jpg" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21906702 } , "151812-21912220": { "datetime_modified":"20260909T105005", "datetime_start":"20260917T113000", "datetime_end":"20260917T125000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-09-17", "date_end":"2026-09-17", "time_start":"11:30:00", "time_end":"12:50:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Network Complementarities in Maritime Trade Infrastructure: Evidence from the Philippines", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Network Complementarities in Maritime Trade Infrastructure: Evidence from the Philippines: Seongyoon Kim, University of Michigan", "event_subtitle":"Seongyoon Kim, University of Michigan", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"This paper tests for network complementarities in port infrastructure by examining whether Roll-On Roll-Off (RORO) upgrades at Fillipino ports generate bilateral trade gains beyond the sum of individual port effects. Using port-to-port commodity flow data, I find that routes where both ports have RORO trade 23% more than predicted by the individual effects alone. I also propose an interaction event study to investigate the dynamic effects and find evidence that these effects show zero pretrends and have positive dynamic effects. I embed these estimates in an Eaton-Kortum model with island geography and show that complementarity generates a superadditivity premium, implying coordinated port investments dominate sequential upgrades.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"151812-21912220@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/151812", "building_id":"1005177", "building_name":"North Quad", "campus_maps_id":"553", "room":"4325", "location_name":"North Quad", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Economics","International","seminar"], "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Economics", "group_id":"3302", "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151812_original-1.png" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21912220 } , "151329-21911377": { "datetime_modified":"20260901T140147", "datetime_start":"20260918T100000", "datetime_end":"20260918T112000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-09-18", "date_end":"2026-09-18", "time_start":"10:00:00", "time_end":"11:20:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Innovation Policy in Product-Line Markets: Evidence from GPUs", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Innovation Policy in Product-Line Markets: Evidence from GPUs: Jiahao Chen, University of Michigan", "event_subtitle":"Jiahao Chen, University of Michigan", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"I study the effects of innovation policies in product-line markets, using a dynamic oligopoly model with endogenous pricing, product-line adjustment, and R&D. I apply the model to the desktop GPU market, a duopoly between NVIDIA and AMD. I find that a dollar of R&D generates about $9.0 of within-market surplus net of that dollar, with the firms capturing $3.0 and consumers the rest. But the return to public support is far more modest. I simulate three stylized interventions: an R&D credit and two product rebates, one at the cutting edge and one on the mass market. Only the R&D credit induces a material increase in private R&D, but it returns only $0.51 of surplus per public dollar because additionality is low: most of its outlay reimburses research the firms would have conducted anyway. The rebate on cutting-edge products returns only $0.23 per public dollar and sets back the technology frontier. Subsidizing both firms, it ignites a price war at the top of the line, benefiting consumers but undercutting the reason firms advance the frontier. The mass-market rebate sets off the same war lower down the product line but expands adoption enough that R&D survives, returning $1.09 per public dollar. These results suggest that innovation policy in product-line markets is a more intricate design problem than in markets with simpler structure. Each instrument induces a distinct equilibrium response in prices, qualities, and R&D. The static and dynamic components of that response can offset or reinforce each other, attenuating or even reversing the intended effect.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"151329-21911377@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/151329", "building_id":"1005177", "building_name":"North Quad", "campus_maps_id":"553", "room":"4300", "location_name":"North Quad", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Economics","Industrial Organization","seminar"], "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Economics", "group_id":"3302", "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151329_original-1.png" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21911377 } , "149555-21906699": { "datetime_modified":"20260901T102548", "datetime_start":"20260918T143000", "datetime_end":"20260918T155000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-09-18", "date_end":"2026-09-18", "time_start":"14:30:00", "time_end":"15:50:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Bounds for Boundedly Rational Choice", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Bounds for Boundedly Rational Choice: Yusufcan Masatlioglu, University of Maryland", "event_subtitle":"Yusufcan Masatlioglu, University of Maryland", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"We introduce a novel framework to enhance our understanding of behavioral heterogeneity. At the core of our investigation is the question of when and how individual behavior can be accurately inferred from aggregate data, particularly when individuals are susceptible to mistakes. Addressing this challenge requires bridging the gap between unobserved individual choices and observed aggregate outcomes. To this end, we first present the \u201cbounds\u201d framework, designed to constrain deviations from rational choice systematically. Then, we establish com- prehensive results on \u201cdecomposability,\u201d a key property ensuring that aggregate choice behavior accurately mirrors the underlying characteristics of individual decision-making within a population.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"149555-21906699@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/149555", "building_id":"1005177", "building_name":"North Quad", "campus_maps_id":"553", "room":"4300", "location_name":"North Quad", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Economics","seminar","Theory"], "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Economics", "group_id":"3302", "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149555_original-2.png", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_149555_original-2.png", 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"description":"About one-quarter of trade-credit obligations are paid late, and larger buyers pay later than smaller ones. Using granular Dun & Bradstreet payment records, we show that this delay is selective: larger firms delay a greater share of invoices, but not a greater share of dollars, and the invoices they delay are disproportionately small. We develop a dynamic model in which downstream buyers source from heterogeneous, relationship-specific suppliers and optimally stretch payables, trading off the working-capital benefits of delay against the risk of disrupting valuable supplier relationships. We estimate the model by simulated method of moments, targeting moments on payment behavior and buyer\u2013supplier relationship dynamics. Motivated by prompt-payment regulation such as the EU Late Payment Directive, we evaluate a mandate requiring on-time payment. The mandate lowers the exit rate of incumbent suppliers from 6.6 to 2.2 percent, but it shifts the working-capital burden onto buyers, raising their financing needs by 25 percent. Buyers respond primarily by accumulating precautionary cash, but this adjustment does not fully absorb the shock: they shrink their supplier networks by 4 percent and reduce input order sizes by 4.2 percent. These extensive and intensive margin adjustments reduce output by 4.1 percent. 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