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DTSTART:20070311T020000
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260820T105819
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20260908T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20260908T125000
SUMMARY:Workshop / Seminar:Customers and Retail Growth (with Liran Einav\, Jon Levin\, Raviv Murciano-Goroff\, and Chris Tonetti)
DESCRIPTION:Using Visa debit and credit card transactions in the U.S. from 2017 to 2021\, we document the importance of customers in accounting for sales variation across merchants\, across stores within retail chains\, and over time for individual merchants and stores. The number of unique customers\, as opposed to transactions per customer or dollar sales per transaction\, consistently accounts for about 80% of sales variation. The top growing and shrinking merchants account for the majority of total sales reallocation over time\, through their acquisition and loss of customers. To illustrate potential implications\, we write down an endogenous growth model with a customer margin. In this model\, the customer margin drastically increases the size of the largest retailers and their contribution to overall growth\, boosting aggregate innovation and growth in the process.
UID:149557-21906701@events.umich.edu
URL:https://events.umich.edu/event/149557
CLASS:PUBLIC
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CATEGORIES:Macroeconomics,seminar,Economics
LOCATION:North Quad - 4325
CONTACT:
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260820T111711
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20260915T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20260915T125000
SUMMARY:Workshop / Seminar:Why Didn't the U.S. Unemployment Rate Rise at the End of WWII? (with Shigergu Fujita)
DESCRIPTION:This paper investigates why the U.S. unemployment rate rose only a few percentage points despite the dramatic decline in government spending and other upheaval at the end of World War II. Using a new longitudinal data set based on archival sources and government surveys\, we study the many facets of this question. Our findings suggest the following answers. First\, the dramatic decline in government spending led to a significantly smaller decrease in GDP than predicted by standard Keynesian models. Instead\, private job creation surged as private activity was “crowded in” by the fall in government spending. Second\, even accounting for the smaller fall in GDP\, the unemployment rate rose much less than predicted by Okun’s Law. We develop a new decomposition method that reveals how unusual movements in labor force participation rates\, hours worked\, and productivity led to a breakdown in Okun’s law during the 1940s. Third\, the U.S. labor market worked with astounding efficiency: despite large sectoral shifts at the end of the war\, most of the workers who separated from their jobs moved directly into new jobs without experiencing unemployment. All of these factors lined up to create a post-war boom despite the largest fall in government spending in U.S. history.
UID:149558-21906702@events.umich.edu
URL:https://events.umich.edu/event/149558
CLASS:PUBLIC
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CATEGORIES:Economics,Macroeconomics,seminar
LOCATION:North Quad - 4325
CONTACT:
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260726T182111
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20260922T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20260922T125000
SUMMARY:Workshop / Seminar:Michael Beauregard Seminar in Macroeconomics: Tuesday\, September 22
DESCRIPTION:--
UID:149559-21906703@events.umich.edu
URL:https://events.umich.edu/event/149559
CLASS:PUBLIC
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CATEGORIES:Economics,Macroeconomics,seminar
LOCATION:North Quad - 4325
CONTACT:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260726T182254
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20260929T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20260929T125000
SUMMARY:Workshop / Seminar:Michael Beauregard Seminar in Macroeconomics: Tuesday\, September 29
DESCRIPTION:--
UID:149560-21906704@events.umich.edu
URL:https://events.umich.edu/event/149560
CLASS:PUBLIC
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CATEGORIES:Macroeconomics,seminar,Economics
LOCATION:North Quad - 4325
CONTACT:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260726T182426
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20261006T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20261006T125000
SUMMARY:Workshop / Seminar:Michael Beauregard Seminar in Macroeconomics: Tuesday\, October 6
DESCRIPTION:--
UID:149561-21906705@events.umich.edu
URL:https://events.umich.edu/event/149561
CLASS:PUBLIC
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CATEGORIES:Economics,Macroeconomics,seminar
LOCATION:North Quad - 4325
CONTACT:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260726T182550
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20261013T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20261013T125000
SUMMARY:Workshop / Seminar:Michael Beauregard Seminar in Macroeconomics: Tuesday\, October 13
DESCRIPTION:--
UID:149562-21906706@events.umich.edu
URL:https://events.umich.edu/event/149562
CLASS:PUBLIC
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CATEGORIES:Economics,Macroeconomics,seminar
LOCATION:North Quad - 4325
CONTACT:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260901T135721
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20261027T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20261027T125000
SUMMARY:Workshop / Seminar:The Devil is in the Tail: Macroeconomic Tail Risk Expectations of Firms
DESCRIPTION:This paper examines novel survey evidence on firms’ beliefs about macroeconomic tail risk and their role in investment decisions. In a large survey of firms\, I elicit the subjective probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn and firms’ exposure to such events. Using observational and experimental variation\, I find that a higher probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn substantially lowers investment\, particularly for more exposed firms\, beyond what can be explained by changes in firms’ subjective first and second moments. In a heterogeneous firm model calibrated to the survey evidence\, tail risk concerns make fiscal policy particularly effective for stabilizing investment.
UID:149567-21906712@events.umich.edu
URL:https://events.umich.edu/event/149567
CLASS:PUBLIC
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CATEGORIES:Economics,seminar,Macroeconomics
LOCATION:North Quad - 4325
CONTACT:
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260727T094525
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20261103T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20261103T125000
SUMMARY:Workshop / Seminar:Michael Beauregard Seminar in Macroeconomics: Tuesday\, November 3
DESCRIPTION:--
UID:149568-21906713@events.umich.edu
URL:https://events.umich.edu/event/149568
CLASS:PUBLIC
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CATEGORIES:Economics,Macroeconomics,seminar
LOCATION:North Quad - 4325
CONTACT:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260727T094651
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20261110T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20261110T125000
SUMMARY:Workshop / Seminar:Michael Beauregard Seminar in Macroeconomics: Tuesday\, November 10
DESCRIPTION:--
UID:149570-21906714@events.umich.edu
URL:https://events.umich.edu/event/149570
CLASS:PUBLIC
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CATEGORIES:Economics,Macroeconomics,seminar
LOCATION:North Quad - 4325
CONTACT:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260727T095035
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20261117T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20261117T125000
SUMMARY:Workshop / Seminar:Michael Beauregard Seminar in Macroeconomics: Tuesday\, November 17
DESCRIPTION:--
UID:149571-21906715@events.umich.edu
URL:https://events.umich.edu/event/149571
CLASS:PUBLIC
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CATEGORIES:Macroeconomics,seminar,Economics
LOCATION:North Quad - 4325
CONTACT:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260901T142229
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20261201T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20261201T125000
SUMMARY:Workshop / Seminar:Micro Responses to Macro Shocks
DESCRIPTION:We study panel data regression models when the shocks of interest are aggregate and there are omitted macro and micro-level shocks of any relative size. This speaks to a large empirical literature that targets impulse responses via panel local projections. We show how to interpret the estimated coefficients when responses are heterogeneous and that a simple recipe leads to uniformly valid inference over the macro–micro composition of the errors: including lags as controls and then clustering at the time level. Finally\, we use our methods to reassess the role of firm financial frictions in shaping the transmission of monetary policy.
UID:149572-21906716@events.umich.edu
URL:https://events.umich.edu/event/149572
CLASS:PUBLIC
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CATEGORIES:Econometrics,Economics,Macroeconomics,seminar
LOCATION:North Quad - 4325
CONTACT:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260727T095345
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20261208T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20261208T125000
SUMMARY:Workshop / Seminar:Michael Beauregard Seminar in Macroeconomics: Tuesday\, December 8
DESCRIPTION:--
UID:149573-21906717@events.umich.edu
URL:https://events.umich.edu/event/149573
CLASS:PUBLIC
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CATEGORIES:Economics,Macroeconomics,seminar
LOCATION:North Quad - 4325
CONTACT:
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