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        "event_title":"Estimating Demand with Recentered Instruments (joint with Kirill Borusyak and Mauricio Caceres Bravo)",
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        "combined_title":"Estimating Demand with Recentered Instruments (joint with Kirill Borusyak and Mauricio Caceres Bravo): Peter Hull, Brown University",
        "event_subtitle":"Peter Hull, Brown University",
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        "event_type_id":"21",
        "description":"We develop a new approach to estimating flexible demand models with exogenous supply-side shocks. Our approach avoids conventional assumptions of exogenous product characteristics, putting no restrictions on product entry, despite using instrumental variables that incorporate characteristic variation. The proposed instruments are model-predicted responses of endogenous variables to the exogenous shocks, recentered to avoid bias from endogenous characteristics. We illustrate the approach in a series of Monte Carlo simulations and an application to the demand for Medicare Advantage insurance plans.",
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        "event_title":"Beyond Local Revenue: Commercial Property Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Fiscal Externalities",
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        "combined_title":"Beyond Local Revenue: Commercial Property Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Fiscal Externalities: Nathan Sunday, University of Michigan",
        "event_subtitle":"Nathan Sunday, University of Michigan",
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        "description":"Property taxation is widely viewed as a promising source of revenue for developing countries, yet evidence on its economic effects remains limited. Using administrative data from corporate and employee tax returns in a staggered difference-in-differences design, this paper shows that a property tax increase in Kampala, Uganda significantly reduced rates of firm survival. Business rental expenses increased by 6.3 percent, and firms responded by reducing formal employment and wages, with wage informalization accounting for most of the decline in the formal wage bill. Higher-earning employees of ongoing firms bore disproportionate shares of the wage declines. Within government, there were vertical fiscal externalities: the tax increase reduced central government income tax revenues by 30 percent of the amount it contributed to local property tax collections.  The estimates imply that property taxes have 53 percent marginal deadweight losses.",
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        "date_start":"2026-11-23",
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        "event_title":"Housing First or Treatment First? Evidence from the VA's Homelessness Programs",
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        "combined_title":"Housing First or Treatment First? Evidence from the VA's Homelessness Programs: Sydney Constantini, University of California, Berkeley",
        "event_subtitle":"Sydney Constantini, University of California, Berkeley",
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        "description":"Debates in homelessness policy often pit Housing First programs, in which subsidized housing is offered unconditionally and immediately, against Treatment First interventions, which combine short-term housing with treatment for issues like substance use. I study a national sample of nearly 300,000 unhoused, mentally ill Veterans who are potentially eligible for the VA's Housing First program (known as HUD-VASH or VA Supportive Housing) or for a Treatment First program (offered by a variety of local contractors). Using an instrumental variables design, I find that enrolling in Housing First reduces three-year mortality by 4.6 percentage points relative to a no-program counterfactual. In contrast, Treatment First has no long-term effects on health. Housing First is also cost-saving, as it causes individuals to substitute away from lengthy inpatient stays.",
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        "datetime_modified":"20261110T124804",
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        "event_title":"The Limits of Targeted Hiring Subsidies: Evidence from the Work Opportunity Tax Credit (joint with Manisha Jain and Jeffrey Weaver)",
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        "combined_title":"The Limits of Targeted Hiring Subsidies: Evidence from the Work Opportunity Tax Credit (joint with Manisha Jain and Jeffrey Weaver): Corina Mommaerts, University of Wisconsin - Madison",
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        "description":"Employer-side wage subsidies are widely used to promote employment among disadvantaged workers. We study how such subsidies translate into firm hiring behavior using the federal Work Opportunity Tax Credit, which subsidizes up to 40% of first-year wages and covers over two million hires annually. Using linked administrative data from Wisconsin and multiple quasi- experimental designs, we find consistent and precise null effects on hiring, earnings, retention, and related outcomes across designs and firm types. Original data on firm hiring practices suggest two mechanisms that can limit employer-side subsidy efficacy: perceived legal risks discourage eligibility screening and organizational frictions attenuate decision-makers\u2019 responsiveness.",
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