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Using this data, along with additional moments of AI spending and occupational adoption, we quantify our model and use it to project the future path of AI automation given trends in capabilities and computing costs. The model predicts that by 2050 AI will perform 54 percent of all work in the US economy. Halving the rate at which computing prices fall lowers this share to 39 percent, while halving the growth rate of frontier models leaves it almost unchanged.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"149570-21906714@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/149570", "building_id":"1005177", "building_name":"North Quad", "campus_maps_id":"553", "room":"4325", "location_name":"North Quad", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Economics","Macroeconomics","seminar"], "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Economics Seminars", "group_id":"3566", "website":"" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149570_original-1.png" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21906714 } , "149952-21907425": { "datetime_modified":"20260921T212320", "datetime_start":"20261111T143000", "datetime_end":"20261111T155000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-11-11", "date_end":"2026-11-11", "time_start":"14:30:00", "time_end":"15:50:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Does Management Matter? Evidence from Indigent Defense in Texas", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Does Management Matter? Evidence from Indigent Defense in Texas: Emily Owens, University of California, Irvine", "event_subtitle":"Emily Owens, University of California, Irvine", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"The majority of felony cases in the United States involve indigent defendants represented by publicly financed attorneys. We examine the effects of efforts to improve representation for economically disadvantaged defendants through the adoption of managed indigent defense offices (MIDs) in Texas, which impose a layer of oversight and accountability on attorneys who provide indigent defense services. Exploiting the staggered roll-out of MIDs across Texas counties, together with administrative data on attorney employment and caseloads, jail populations, and newly compiled arrest and prison records, we show that introducing management concentrates cases among a smaller set of local lawyers. Management reduces the use of bench warrants and the probability of imprisonment. Sentences among those incarcerated lengthen as imprisonment falls, implying that the defendants diverted from prison would have served relatively short terms. 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