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        "event_title":"Economic Theory: Can Agents with Causal Misperceptions be Systematically Fooled?",
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        "combined_title":"Economic Theory: Can Agents with Causal Misperceptions be Systematically Fooled?: Rani Spiegler, Tel Aviv University",
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        "description":"Abstract\r\n\r\nThe conventional rational-expectations postulate rules out the possibility that agents will form systematically biased estimates of economic variables. This paper revisits this question under the assumption that agents' expectations are based on a misspecified causal model. I present a model in which an agent forms estimates (or forecasts) of individual variables after observing a signal. His estimates are based on fitting a subjective causal model - formalized as a directed acyclic graph, following the \"Bayesian networks\" literature - to objective long-run data. I show that the agent's estimates are never systematically biased if and only if his graph is perfect - it links every two causes of some third variable. This result identifies a certain form of correlation neglect as the kind of misperception that generates systematic prediction errors. I demonstrate the relevance of this result for economic applications: speculative trade, manipulation of a firm's reputation and a stylized \"monetary policy\" example in which the inflation-output relation obeys an expectational Phillips Curve.",
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        "tags":["seminar","Economics"],
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        "event_title":"BGS and IMP Graduation Reception",
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        "event_title":"Comparative Literature Graduation Reception",
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        "description":"The Comparative Literature department is putting on its annual graduation reception for Comp Lit faculty, Comp Lit affiliated faculty, graduate students, graduating undergraduates (Majors and Minors), and their families. \r\n\r\nThe reception will be held on Friday, April 28th from 4-6 pm in the Vandenberg Room of the Michigan League.",
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        "has_livestream":0,
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        "tags":["Dance","Free","Music","Theater"],
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        "event_title":"Program in the Environment (PitE) Graduation Reception",
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