{ "144784-21895842": { "datetime_modified":"20260213T092615", "datetime_start":"20260220T100000", "datetime_end":"20260220T110000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-02-20", "date_end":"2026-02-20", "time_start":"10:00:00", "time_end":"11:00:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Statistics Department Seminar Series: Fred Feinberg, Handleman Professor of Management, Ross School of Business, Professor of Statistics (by courtesy), Department of Statistics, University of Michigan", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Statistics Department Seminar Series: Fred Feinberg, Handleman Professor of Management, Ross School of Business, Professor of Statistics (by courtesy), Department of Statistics, University of Michigan: \"Harmonizing Discord: A Bayesian Model of Multi-Rater Agreement with Nonignorable Recusals (and a surprise empirical application!)\"", "event_subtitle":"\"Harmonizing Discord: A Bayesian Model of Multi-Rater Agreement with Nonignorable Recusals (and a surprise empirical application!)\"", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"Abstract: Expert adjudications are ubiquitous in high-stakes decision-making, from grant reviews and academic hiring to elite evaluations in the arts and athletics. In these settings, panels of judges score candidates across sequential stages, and these scores are aggregated into a consensus ranking. Standard practice typically employs arithmetic averaging, often supplemented with ad-hoc \"corrections\" for outliers or scale differences. However, such approaches suffer from three core statistical problems: (1) Scale Heterogeneity, where judges exhibit varying levels of discrimination and range-restriction; (2) Information Loss, where the longitudinal \"trajectory\" of a candidate is sidestepped in favor of stage-specific snapshots; and (3) Nonignorable Missingness, where conflict-of-interest (COI) recusals can introduce systematic bias.\n\nWe develop a hierarchical Bayesian framework that addresses these issues simultaneously. First, we treat observed scores as generators of ordinal tie-blocks, bypassing the \"cardinality fallacy\" and modeling the probability of observed ranks. Second, we link sequential rounds via a fusion model with LKJ correlation priors, allowing the model to borrow strength across the tournament while regularizing the latent covariance. Third, we introduce a novel Informative Missing Data Likelihood (MDL) that treats COI recusals as a form of informative censoring. When judges abstain from rating their own students or collaborators, standard approaches invoke a \"Missing Completely at Random\" (MCAR) assumption. Our MDL instead retains recused candidates in the \"risk set\" as censored alternatives, correcting for the potential bias in win probabilities that occurs when high-caliber competitors are systematically excluded from a judge\u2019s denominator. The model combines a Plackett\u2013Luce formulation for tied data (implemented via Elementary Symmetric Polynomials) with judge-specific discrimination parameters that automatically downweight poorly-calibrated raters, and the full posterior can be efficiently sampled via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, allowing full uncertainty quantification in downstream estimands.\n\nWe apply this framework to a high-stakes international competition \u2014 to be revealed during the talk! \u2014 featuring dozens of candidates, multiple rounds, and nearly 20 elite judges. Analysis suggests that the standard scoring method and the MDL-augmented model produce distinctly different results: they disagree on the winner and posterior advancement probabilities, driven almost entirely by the differential treatment of collaborator-based recusals. Sensitivity analysis reveals that these outcomes are largely contingent on the assumed missing data mechanism. By making these untestable assumptions explicit, we provide a more transparent and principled foundation for high-stakes adjudication in grant panels, hiring committees, and both athletic and artistic judging.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"144784-21895842@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/144784", "building_id":"1000167", "building_name":"West Hall", "campus_maps_id":"163", "room":"340", "location_name":"West Hall", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["seminar"], "website":"https:\/\/lsa.umich.edu\/stats", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Statistics", "group_id":"3473", "website":"" }, { "group_name":"Department of Statistics Seminar Series", "group_id":"3585", "website":"" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/02\/event_144784_original-1.jpg" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21895842 } , "137303-21880097": { "datetime_modified":"20251215T133743", "datetime_start":"20260220T100000", "datetime_end":"20260220T143000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-02-20", "date_end":"2026-02-20", "time_start":"10:00:00", "time_end":"14:30:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Story Lab Winter Retreats", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Story Lab Winter Retreats", "event_subtitle":"", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"ABOUT\r\nStory Lab develops executive-level presence and communication skills through storytelling workshops and events. To be an effective leader\u2014at work, in the community, or in your personal life\u2014you must be able to communicate with impact. Often this means telling stories that are meaningful to you and others, and doing so in the rich language and expressive style of a seasoned storyteller. If you can craft and deliver an effective story, you will be better able to convey your value to recruiters, inspire and motivate classmates and colleagues, and influence your audience. At Story Lab, you\u2019ll find an immersive experience and an opportunity to hone your skills in a safe and supportive environment.\r\n\r\nStory Lab is generously sponsored by M\u2022LEAD and the Ford School\u2019s Leadership Initiative.\r\n\r\nDATES\r\n2\/18, 4:30\u20139 PM @ the Michigan League OR 2\/20, 10 AM\u20132:30 PM (virtual) (Choose ONE)\r\nDevelop your storytelling abilities.\r\n\r\nPARTICIPANT REQUIREMENTS\r\nDeep interest in storytelling, personal growth, and lifelong learning. \r\nThis program is open to all U-M students. However, because space is limited, virtual offerings of Sanger programs will prioritize the registration of Online, Weekend, and Executive MBA students. Any remaining spots will be made available to students in other programs.\r\n\r\nREGISTRATION WINDOW\r\n2\/2\u20132\/13\r\n\r\nVisit our webpage to learn more!", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"137303-21880097@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/137303", "building_id":"null", "building_name":"Off Campus Location", "campus_maps_id":"1", "room":"", "location_name":"Virtual", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Graduate","Workshop","Undergraduate Students","Undergraduate","Storytelling","Leadership","Graduate Students","Free"], "website":"https:\/\/sanger.umich.edu\/experience\/story-lab\/", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Sanger Leadership Center", "group_id":"3890", "website":"http:\/\/sanger.umich.edu" }, { "group_name":"M-LEAD", "group_id":"4216", "website":"" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2025\/08\/event_137303_original-1.jpg" }, "occurrence_count":2, "first_occurrence":21880096 } }