{ "153096-21915074": { "datetime_modified":"20261007T154047", "datetime_start":"20261016T100000", "datetime_end":"20261016T113000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-10-16", "date_end":"2026-10-16", "time_start":"10:00:00", "time_end":"11:30:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Anytime-Valid Confidence Sequences: Stopping Experiments Early with Netflix", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Anytime-Valid Confidence Sequences: Stopping Experiments Early with Netflix: Dae Woong (David) Ham", "event_subtitle":"Dae Woong (David) Ham", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. Beyond aiding managerial decision-making, experiments mitigate risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to innovations. Since many experiments are conducted sequentially over time, an emerging strategy to further de-risk the process is to allow managers to ``peek'' at the results as new data become available and stop the test if the results are statistically significant. The class of statistical methods that allow managers to peek and still provide valid inference are often called anytime-valid since they maintain proper uniform type-1 error guarantees. In this paper, we extend existing anytime-valid approaches to accommodate the more complex yet standard settings in time series, switchback, and panel experiments. To achieve this, we leverage the design-based approach to focus on assumption-light and managerial relevant finite-sample estimates defined on the study participants as a direct measure of the risks incurred by companies. As a special case, our (asymptotic) results also provide a robust method for achieving always-valid inference in A\/B tests. We further provide a variance reduction technique incorporating modeling assumptions and covariates. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach through a simulation study and three real-world applications from Netflix. Our results show that using our confidence sequence, harmful experiments could be stopped after only observing a handful of units; for instance, our method would have stopped a 30,000 person Netflix experiment after the first 100 people.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"153096-21915074@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/153096", "building_id":"1000167", "building_name":"West Hall", "campus_maps_id":"163", "room":"340", "location_name":"West Hall", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Talk","symposium","seminar","Lecture","Graduate And Professional Students","Aem Featured"], "website":"", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Statistics Seminar Series", "group_id":"3585", "website":"" }, { "group_name":"Department of Statistics", "group_id":"3473", "website":"" } ], "image_url":"", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"", "event_large":"", "event_large_2x":"", "event_large_lightbox":"", "group_thumb":"", "group_thumb_square":"", "group_large":"", "group_large_lightbox":"", "event_large_crop":"", "event_list":"", "event_list_2x":"", "event_grid":"", "event_grid_2x":"", "event_feature_large":"", "event_feature_thumb":"" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21915074 } , "149189-21905947": { "datetime_modified":"20260701T112608", "datetime_start":"20261016T100000", "datetime_end":"20261016T113000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-10-16", "date_end":"2026-10-16", "time_start":"10:00:00", "time_end":"11:30:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Bookworm #96-Author Conversation with Amy E. Hughes, \"An Actor's Tale: Theater, Culture, and Everyday Life in the Nineteenth-Century United States\"", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Bookworm #96-Author Conversation with Amy E. Hughes, \"An Actor's Tale: Theater, Culture, and Everyday Life in the Nineteenth-Century United States\"", "event_subtitle":"", "event_type":"Livestream \/ Virtual", "event_type_id":"24", "description":"Historian and author of \"An Actor's Tale: Theater, Culture, and Everyday Life in the Nineteenth-Century United States,\" Amy E. Hughes introduces us to playwright and actor Harry Watkins for an alternative history of nineteenth-century theater.\n\nHughes asks uncomfortable questions about the existence, predominance, and erasure of White male mediocrity in U.S. culture, both in the past and present. When historians focus only on performers and plays with artistic \"merit,\" what communities, perspectives, and cultural trends remain invisible? Join us to think through these and other questions.\n\nThis episode is sponsored by Christina and Robbi Karas.\n\nThe Clements Bookworm is a free monthly webinar series featuring guests discussing topics in American history.", "occurrence_notes":"https:\/\/myumi.ch\/3QjMV", "guid":"149189-21905947@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/149189", "building_id":"null", "building_name":"Off Campus Location", "campus_maps_id":"1", "room":"", "location_name":"Virtual", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Virtual","William L Clements","american culture","Talk","Podcast","Literature","Library","libraries","Event","Discussion","Clements Bookworm","Books","Book Talk","book discussion","Americana","american history"], "website":"https:\/\/myumi.ch\/3QjMV", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"William L. 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