{ "151079-21910841": { "datetime_modified":"20260828T094139", "datetime_start":"20260911T100000", "datetime_end":"20260911T110000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-09-11", "date_end":"2026-09-11", "time_start":"10:00:00", "time_end":"11:00:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"When Prediction Meets Randomization: Regression, Machine Learning, or LLMs? Lessons from 125 Randomized Trials", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"When Prediction Meets Randomization: Regression, Machine Learning, or LLMs? Lessons from 125 Randomized Trials: Bingkai Wang", "event_subtitle":"Bingkai Wang", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"Covariate adjustment is a standard tool for improving precision in randomized trials, but the value of increasingly flexible prediction methods remains unclear. This talk begins with an empirical comparison of regression and machine-learning-based adjustment across 50 completed trials. The results show that flexible machine learning methods are not automatically superior: simple regression adjustment with prognostic baseline covariates is often highly competitive. This finding motivates a new question: can large language models change the picture by extracting useful prognostic information from baseline covariates, trial descriptions, or other text-derived features? To address this question, I present a unified framework for LLM-assisted covariate adjustment and empirical evidence from 125 randomized trials. We evaluate LLM-derived features, including zero\/few-shot predictions, fine-tuned models, and embedding-based representations, combined with both regression and machine-learning estimators. The results show that LLM features can provide additional precision gains beyond classical covariates, although the gains vary across trials, sample sizes, and outcome types. Overall, LLMs appear most useful as tools for constructing better prognostic features within transparent and honest adjustment procedures.\n\n*Department reception in 450 West Hall after the seminar at 11:00 AM*", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"151079-21910841@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/151079", "building_id":"1000167", "building_name":"West Hall", "campus_maps_id":"163", "room":"340", "location_name":"West Hall", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["seminar","statistics"], "website":"", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Statistics", "group_id":"3473", "website":"" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_151079_original-1.jpg" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21910841 } , "151381-21911459": { "datetime_modified":"20260902T114545", "datetime_start":"20260911T110000", "datetime_end":"20260911T140000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-09-11", "date_end":"2026-09-11", "time_start":"11:00:00", "time_end":"14:00:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"AFCA Coaches\u2019 Trophy in the Union", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"AFCA Coaches\u2019 Trophy in the Union", "event_subtitle":"", "event_type":"Exhibition", "event_type_id":"7", "description":"Join us in the Michigan Union Courtyard to take a peak and snap a pic with the American Football Coaches Association (AFCA) Coaches\u2019 Trophy, presented by US LBM. The trophy is awarded to the National Champion and No. 1 ranked team in the US LBM Coaches Poll at the conclusion of the college football season. T\n\nWe are the second stop on our 2026 trophy tour\u2014a fitting visit to one of college football\u2019s most storied programs and the home of the 2023 national champion Wolverines. We will visit schools across the country this season. You can join the over 1,000,000 fans who have taken their picture with the AFCA Coaches\u2019 Trophy.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"151381-21911459@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/151381", "building_id":"1000120", "building_name":"Michigan Union", "campus_maps_id":"191", "room":"Courtyard", "location_name":"Michigan Union", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Athletics - Football","Free","Games","Trophy"], "website":"", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"University Unions", "group_id":"2583", "website":"http:\/\/www.uunions.umich.edu" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_151381_original-1.jpg" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21911459 } }