{ "149499-21906526": { "datetime_modified":"20260921T224644", "datetime_start":"20261002T140000", "datetime_end":"20261002T155000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-10-02", "date_end":"2026-10-02", "time_start":"14:00:00", "time_end":"15:50:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"A Behavioral Theory of Statistics, joint with Wolfgang Pesendorfer", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"A Behavioral Theory of Statistics, joint with Wolfgang Pesendorfer: Faruk Gul, Princeton University", "event_subtitle":"Faruk Gul, Princeton University", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"We present a deterministic theory of the statistician based on two preferences: the estimation preference describes the statistician\u2019s view of how well input data and models fit together and the prediction preference describes how well predictions and models fit together. Standard assumptions on these preferences, together with a consistency condition, imply that the estimation preference has an additively separable representation: the first term is the function representing the prediction preference, and the second term is a penalty function that depends only on the model. We relate our two- preference statistical theories to existing methods of classical and Bayesian estimation, identifying common features and show that, despite diGerences in terminology, many of these methods are equivalent. By optimizing over models, we derive the fit between input data and predictions from our statistical theories. We call these derived relationships empirical descriptions and identify necessary and suGicient conditions under which an empirical description is induced by some statistical theory. Finally, we characterize empirical descriptions that can be interpreted as consequences of a parametrized class of statistical theories of updating. The parametrization includes Bayesian, maximum likelihood and behavioral updating.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"149499-21906526@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/149499", "building_id":"1005177", "building_name":"North Quad", "campus_maps_id":"553", "room":"4300", "location_name":"North Quad", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Economics","seminar","Theory"], "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Economics", "group_id":"3302", "website":"http:\/\/www.lsa.umich.edu\/econ" }, { "group_name":"Economic Theory", "group_id":"3555", "website":"" }, { "group_name":"Department of Economics Seminars", "group_id":"3566", "website":"" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/07\/event_149499_original-1.png" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21906526 } , "153022-21914932": { "datetime_modified":"20261001T172116", "datetime_start":"20261002T140000", "datetime_end":"20261002T150000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-10-02", "date_end":"2026-10-02", "time_start":"14:00:00", "time_end":"15:00:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Alamanya Transnational German Studies (Start-of-Semester Kickoff)", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Alamanya Transnational German Studies (Start-of-Semester Kickoff)", "event_subtitle":"", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"Alamanya will be meeting for its first event of the semester this Friday from 2-3PM in the department conference room, unless the room is unavailable at that time, in which case we will relocate to a different room. We are in the process of securing the room for this hour block on Friday, so I will send an update if the location changes. Refreshments and free bagels from Panera will be provided!\u00a0", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"153022-21914932@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/153022", "building_id":"", "building_name":"", "campus_maps_id":"", "room":"", "location_name":"MLB 3rd floor Conference Room 3308", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Sessions"], "website":"https:\/\/sessions.studentlife.umich.edu\/p\/track\/18134", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Sessions @ Michigan", "group_id":"4791", "website":"https:\/\/sessions.studentlife.umich.edu\/" } ], "image_url":"", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"", "event_large":"", "event_large_2x":"", "event_large_lightbox":"", "group_thumb":"", "group_thumb_square":"", "group_large":"", "group_large_lightbox":"", "event_large_crop":"", "event_list":"", "event_list_2x":"", "event_grid":"", "event_grid_2x":"", "event_feature_large":"", "event_feature_thumb":"" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21914932 } }