{ "153096-21915074": { "datetime_modified":"20261007T154047", "datetime_start":"20261016T100000", "datetime_end":"20261016T113000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-10-16", "date_end":"2026-10-16", "time_start":"10:00:00", "time_end":"11:30:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Anytime-Valid Confidence Sequences: Stopping Experiments Early with Netflix", "occurrence_title":"", "combined_title":"Anytime-Valid Confidence Sequences: Stopping Experiments Early with Netflix: Dae Woong (David) Ham", "event_subtitle":"Dae Woong (David) Ham", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. Beyond aiding managerial decision-making, experiments mitigate risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to innovations. Since many experiments are conducted sequentially over time, an emerging strategy to further de-risk the process is to allow managers to ``peek'' at the results as new data become available and stop the test if the results are statistically significant. The class of statistical methods that allow managers to peek and still provide valid inference are often called anytime-valid since they maintain proper uniform type-1 error guarantees. In this paper, we extend existing anytime-valid approaches to accommodate the more complex yet standard settings in time series, switchback, and panel experiments. To achieve this, we leverage the design-based approach to focus on assumption-light and managerial relevant finite-sample estimates defined on the study participants as a direct measure of the risks incurred by companies. As a special case, our (asymptotic) results also provide a robust method for achieving always-valid inference in A\/B tests. We further provide a variance reduction technique incorporating modeling assumptions and covariates. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach through a simulation study and three real-world applications from Netflix. Our results show that using our confidence sequence, harmful experiments could be stopped after only observing a handful of units; for instance, our method would have stopped a 30,000 person Netflix experiment after the first 100 people.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"153096-21915074@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/153096", "building_id":"1000167", "building_name":"West Hall", "campus_maps_id":"163", "room":"340", "location_name":"West Hall", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Aem Featured","Graduate And Professional Students","Lecture","seminar","symposium","Talk"], "website":"", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Statistics Seminar Series", "group_id":"3585", "website":"" }, { "group_name":"Department of Statistics", "group_id":"3473", "website":"" } ], "image_url":"", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"", "event_large":"", "event_large_2x":"", "event_large_lightbox":"", "group_thumb":"", "group_thumb_square":"", "group_large":"", "group_large_lightbox":"", "event_large_crop":"", "event_list":"", "event_list_2x":"", "event_grid":"", "event_grid_2x":"", "event_feature_large":"", "event_feature_thumb":"" }, "occurrence_count":1, "first_occurrence":21915074 } , "149189-21905947": { "datetime_modified":"20260701T112608", "datetime_start":"20261016T100000", "datetime_end":"20261016T113000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-10-16", "date_end":"2026-10-16", "time_start":"10:00:00", "time_end":"11:30:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Bookworm #96-Author Conversation with Amy E. 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Join us to think through these and other questions.\n\nThis episode is sponsored by Christina and Robbi Karas.\n\nThe Clements Bookworm is a free monthly webinar series featuring guests discussing topics in American history.", "occurrence_notes":"https:\/\/myumi.ch\/3QjMV", "guid":"149189-21905947@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/149189", "building_id":"null", "building_name":"Off Campus Location", "campus_maps_id":"1", "room":"", "location_name":"Virtual", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["american culture","american history","Americana","book discussion","Book Talk","Books","Clements Bookworm","Discussion","Event","libraries","Library","Literature","Podcast","Talk","Virtual","William L Clements"], "website":"https:\/\/myumi.ch\/3QjMV", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"William L. 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All language levels and students are welcome to join the conversation.\n\n-Come & go as you please; stay as little or as long as you would like!\n\n-Free coffee, tea, light snacks, & baked goods.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"150691-21909922@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/150691", "building_id":"1000207", "building_name":"Modern Languages Building", "campus_maps_id":"111", "room":"4314 MLB", "location_name":"Modern Languages Building", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Central America","Coffee","Community","Community Engagement","Culture","Engaged Learning","Europe","European","Food","Free","Games","International","Language","Latin America","Networking","Romance Languages And Literatures","Social","Spain","Spanish","Study Abroad","Undergraduate","Undergraduate Students"], "website":"", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Romance Languages & Literatures RLL", "group_id":"2963", "website":"https:\/\/lsa.umich.edu\/rll" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/08\/event_150691_original-1.jpg" }, "occurrence_count":14, "first_occurrence":21909916 } , "149983-21907762": { "datetime_modified":"20261015T192114", "datetime_start":"20261016T100000", "datetime_end":"20261016T110000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-10-16", "date_end":"2026-10-16", "time_start":"10:00:00", "time_end":"11:00:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Mechanical Engineering Homecoming 2026", "occurrence_title":"Homecoming Breakfast Honoring 2026 Alumni Merit Award Winner Laurie Transou (BSE ME '90; MSE ME '91)", "combined_title":"Mechanical Engineering Homecoming 2026: Multiple conference events and sessions: Homecoming Breakfast Honoring 2026 Alumni Merit Award Winner Laurie Transou (BSE ME '90; MSE ME '91)", "event_subtitle":"Multiple conference events and sessions", "event_type":"Conference \/ Symposium", "event_type_id":"5", "description":"Celebrate Homecoming with Mechanical Engineering! 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Register by October 6, 2026 to secure your spot! Cost: $755\n\nThis expedition offers two ways to experience Pictured Rocks. Approximately 8\u201310 participants will backpack a section of the lakeshore trail, carrying everything needed for several days in the backcountry while camping at remote sites. \n\nThe remaining participants will establish a comfortable tent basecamp, explore the region through day hikes and scenic destinations, and support the backpacking team with transportation and logistics. \n\nThe program takes place October 16\u201320, 2026. Participants will spend four nights tent camping throughout Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore before returning to the Adventure Leadership Resource Center located on Central Campus during the evening on Tuesday, October 20.\nThe program includes transportation, meals during the expedition, campsite reservations, all group camping equipment, and the opportunity to borrow personal camping gear \u2014 including a backpack, sleeping bag, sleeping pad, and headlamp \u2014 at no additional cost. Personal clothing and toiletries are not included.", "occurrence_notes":null, "guid":"152142-21913134@events.umich.edu", "permalink":"http:\/\/events.umich.edu\/event\/152142", "building_id":"null", "building_name":"Off Campus Location", "campus_maps_id":"1", "room":"", "location_name":"Off Campus Location", "has_livestream":0, "cost":"", "tags":["Adventure Leadership","Community","Leadership","Nature","outdoor adventures","Outdoors","recreation","Well-being","Wellness"], "website":"http:\/\/google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/recreation.umich.edu\/trips\/findyourtrip\/&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1789422104457078&usg=AOvVaw2fSctYMtNHkQrj7mv07HkT", "sponsors":[ { "group_name":"Department of Michigan Recreation", "group_id":"1174", "website":"http:\/\/www.recreation.umich.edu" } ], "image_url":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "styled_images":{ "event_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "event_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "event_large_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_large_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "event_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "group_thumb_square":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_thumb_square\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "group_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "group_large_lightbox":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/group_large_lightbox\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "event_large_crop":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_large_crop\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "event_list":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_list\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "event_list_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_list_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "event_grid":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_grid\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "event_grid_2x":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_grid_2x\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_large":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/resolve\/event_feature_large\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg", "event_feature_thumb":"https:\/\/events.umich.edu\/media\/cache\/event_feature_thumb\/media\/attachments\/2026\/09\/event_152142_original-1.jpg" }, "occurrence_count":5, "first_occurrence":21913134 } , "152716-21914416": { "datetime_modified":"20261015T192115", "datetime_start":"20261016T100000", "datetime_end":"20261016T110000", "has_end_time":1, "date_start":"2026-10-16", "date_end":"2026-10-16", "time_start":"10:00:00", "time_end":"11:00:00", "time_zone":"America\/Detroit", "event_title":"Student Life Coaching Circles", "occurrence_title":"Interested in Getting Your PhD?", "combined_title":"Student Life Coaching Circles: Interested in Getting Your PhD?", "event_subtitle":"", "event_type":"Workshop \/ Seminar", "event_type_id":"21", "description":"Join us for our annual Coaching Cirlces!\u00a0 Each coaching session will provide 8-10 staff members with an opportunity to interact informally with a Student Life Unit Director (or leader) around a leadership topic of interest to them. 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