Happening @ Michigan https://events.umich.edu/list/rss RSS Feed for Happening @ Michigan Events at the University of Michigan. MPSDS JPSM Seminar Series - Evaluating Pre-Election Polling Estimates using a New Measure of Non-Ignorable Selection Bias (October 12, 2022 12:00pm) https://events.umich.edu/event/98434 98434-21796653@events.umich.edu Event Begins: Wednesday, October 12, 2022 12:00pm
Location: Off Campus Location
Organized By: Michigan Program in Survey and Data Science

MPSDS JPSM Seminar Series
October 12, 2022, 12:00-1:00 pm

Brady T. West is a Research Professor in the Survey Methodology Program, located within the Survey Research Center at the Institute for Social Research on the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor (U-M) campus. He earned his PhD from the Michigan Program in Survey and Data Science in 2011. Before that, he received an MA in Applied Statistics from the U-M Statistics Department in 2002, being recognized as an Outstanding First-year Applied Masters student, and a BS in Statistics with Highest Honors and Highest Distinction from the U-M Statistics Department in 2001. His current research interests include the implications of measurement error in auxiliary variables and survey paradata for survey estimation, selection bias in surveys, responsive/adaptive survey design, interviewer effects, and multilevel regression models for clustered and longitudinal data. He is the lead author of a book comparing different statistical software packages in terms of their mixed-effects modeling procedures (Linear Mixed Models: A Practical Guide using Statistical Software, Third Edition, Chapman Hall/CRC Press, 2022), and he is a co-author of a second book entitled Applied Survey Data Analysis (with Steven Heeringa and Pat Berglund), the second edition of which was published by CRC Press in June 2017. He was elected as a Fellow of the American Statistical Association in 2022.

Among the numerous explanations that have been offered for recent errors in pre-election polls, selection bias due to non-ignorable partisan nonresponse bias, where the probability of responding to a poll is a function of the candidate preference that a poll is attempting to measure (even after conditioning on other relevant covariates used for weighting adjustments), has received relatively less focus in the academic literature. Under this type of selection mechanism, estimates of candidate preferences based on individual or aggregated polls may be subject to significant bias, even after standard weighting adjustments. Until recently, methods for measuring and adjusting for this type of non-ignorable selection bias have been unavailable. Fortunately, recent developments in the methodological literature have provided political researchers with easy-to-use measures of non-ignorable selection bias. In this study, we apply a new measure that has been developed specifically for estimated proportions to this challenging problem. We analyze data from 18 different pre-election polls: nine different telephone polls conducted in eight different states prior to the U.S. Presidential election in 2020, and nine different pre-election polls conducted either online or via telephone in Great Britain prior to the 2015 General Election. We rigorously evaluate the ability of this new measure to detect and adjust for selection bias in estimates of the proportion of likely voters that will vote for a specific candidate, using official outcomes from each election as benchmarks and alternative data sources for estimating key characteristics of the likely voter populations in each context.

MPSDS
The University of Michigan Program in Survey Methodology was established in 2001 seeking to train future generations of survey and data scientists. In 2021, we changed our name to the Michigan Program in Survey and Data Science. Our curriculum is concerned with a broad set of data sources including survey data, but also including social media posts, sensor data, and administrative records, as well as analytic methods for working with these new data sources. And we bring to data science a focus on data quality — which is not at the center of traditional data science. The new name speaks to what we teach and work on at the intersection of social research and data. The program offers doctorate and master of science degrees and a certificate through the University of Michigan. The program's home is the Institute for Social Research, the world's largest academically-based social science research institute.

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Workshop / Seminar Tue, 20 Sep 2022 11:50:22 -0400 2022-10-12T12:00:00-04:00 2022-10-12T13:00:00-04:00 Off Campus Location Michigan Program in Survey and Data Science Workshop / Seminar Flyer for Evaluating Pre-Election Polling Estimates using a New Measure of Non-Ignorable Selection Bias
PSC Brownbag Series: Economic Transformation and Population Aging in China: What Comes Next? (October 24, 2022 12:00pm) https://events.umich.edu/event/99035 99035-21797484@events.umich.edu Event Begins: Monday, October 24, 2022 12:00pm
Location: Institute For Social Research
Organized By: Population Studies Center

Over the last four decades, China’s young and growing population has turned from a curse to fortune for its historical economic boom. As China’s economic boom enters a new era with a low growth rate and persistent inequality, a demographic concern of different kind has superseded the old one. This new concern centers on the implications of accelerating population aging and pending population decline. Using an economic life cycle perspective and applying the methodology of National Transfer Accounts (NTA), this talk reviews changes in age profiles of income and consumption over time, examines changes in life cycle surplus and its distribution, and discusses the combined effects of economic change and population aging on intergenerational transfers and the fiscal challenges faced by the Chinese state in the decades to come.

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Workshop / Seminar Mon, 19 Sep 2022 16:32:27 -0400 2022-10-24T12:00:00-04:00 2022-10-24T12:50:00-04:00 Institute For Social Research Population Studies Center Workshop / Seminar PSC Brown Bag: Wang Feng
PSC Brownbag Series: Loneliness Transitions Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults Around the World (November 14, 2022 12:00pm) https://events.umich.edu/event/100509 100509-21800024@events.umich.edu Event Begins: Monday, November 14, 2022 12:00pm
Location: Institute For Social Research
Organized By: Population Studies Center

The PSC Brown Bag Series runs live and on Zoom this fall, Mondays from 12 to 12:50 p.m.
Rachel Margolis of the University of Western Ontario presents: Loneliness Transitions among Middle-Aged and Older Adults around the World

Loneliness among older adults globally is an important social problem. Existing cross-sectional estimates of older adult loneliness lay between 20 and 30% with variation over age and country. To tackle the issue of older adult loneliness, we must move beyond cross sectional estimates of population levels of loneliness to: 1) examine to what extent older adult loneliness is a chronic issue or whether it is common to transition in and out of loneliness; 2) take a life course perspective to examine how common life course changes in family, co-residence, work, and health affect transitions in and out of loneliness; and 3) examine how patterns and predictors of older age loneliness vary around the world. This paper charts loneliness trajectories for 18 countries and finds remarkable consistency in the important predictors of changes in loneliness in older age around the world. This highlights the grave importance of family and household connections, and to a lesser extent, work and health, in affecting loneliness.

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Workshop / Seminar Thu, 20 Oct 2022 14:40:48 -0400 2022-11-14T12:00:00-05:00 2022-11-14T13:00:00-05:00 Institute For Social Research Population Studies Center Workshop / Seminar PSC Brown Bag: Rachel Margolis
MPSDS JPSM Seminar Series - Utility of Commercial Data for Sampling Population Subgroups: A Case of Health and Retirement Study (November 16, 2022 12:00pm) https://events.umich.edu/event/101145 101145-21800872@events.umich.edu Event Begins: Wednesday, November 16, 2022 12:00pm
Location: Off Campus Location
Organized By: Michigan Program in Survey and Data Science

MPSDS JPSM Seminar Series
November 16, 2022
12:00 - 1:00 EST

Sunghee Lee is a Research Associate Professor at Survey Research Center, University of Michigan. Her research focuses on sampling and measurement issues with hard-to-survey population subgroups as well as racial, ethnic, and linguistic minorities.

Chendi Zhao is a Research Assistant and first-year Ph.D. student in the Program in Survey and Data Science

Anqi Liu is a master’s student in MPSDS at the University of Michigan. She works closely with Dr. Sunghee Lee on the Health and Retirement Study sampling.

Abstract
A standard approach for targeting population subgroups in household surveys is to sample general population and then to screen for eligible households. This becomes increasingly costly as the subgroup accounts for a small proportion of the population, which is the case for the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). HRS is a population-based longitudinal study of adults ages 50 and older in the U.S. and maintains its representativeness by adding a new age cohort every 6 years. In 2016, HRS targeted those born between 1960 and 1965 with an additional goal of oversampling racial/ethnic minorities. This group is less than 10% of the population. In order to increase the efficiency of screening, HRS had traditionally used probability proportionate size sampling in its area-probability sample with the age-eligible population size as a measure of size as well as stratification based on the race/ethnicity distribution of area sampling units. For 2016, HRS sampling additionally used stratification at the address level by enhancing the population of addresses in the sample areas with commercial data. This study examines the utility of commercial data for increasing efficiency with a focus on its availability and accuracy by analyzing a dataset that combines sampling frame data, screening data, main survey data as well as external data from the American Community Survey.

MPSDS
The University of Michigan Program in Survey Methodology was established in 2001 seeking to train future generations of survey and data scientists. In 2021, we changed our name to the Michigan Program in Survey and Data Science. Our curriculum is concerned with a broad set of data sources including survey data, but also including social media posts, sensor data, and administrative records, as well as analytic methods for working with these new data sources. And we bring to data science a focus on data quality — which is not at the center of traditional data science. The new name speaks to what we teach and work on at the intersection of social research and data. The program offers doctorate and master of science degrees and a certificate through the University of Michigan. The program's home is the Institute for Social Research, the world's largest academically-based social science research institute.

SISRT
The Annual Summer Institute in Survey Research Techniques
The mission of the Summer Institute is to provide rigorous and high quality graduate training in all phases of survey research. The program teaches state-of-the-art practice and theory in the design, implementation, and analysis of surveys. The Summer Institute in Survey Research Techniques has presented courses on the sample survey since the summer of 1948, and has offered such courses every summer since. Graduate-level courses through the Program in Survey and Data Science are offered from June 5 through July 28 and available to enroll in as a Summer Scholar.

The Summer Institute uses the sample survey as the basic instrument for the scientific measurement of human activity. It presents sample survey methods in courses designed to meet the educational needs of those specializing in social and behavioral research such as professionals in business, public health, natural resources, law, medicine, nursing, social work, and many other domains of study.

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Lecture / Discussion Mon, 07 Nov 2022 18:46:54 -0500 2022-11-16T12:00:00-05:00 2022-11-16T13:00:00-05:00 Off Campus Location Michigan Program in Survey and Data Science Lecture / Discussion Flyer
PSC Brownbag Series: The Unemployment Institution (January 23, 2023 12:00pm) https://events.umich.edu/event/103241 103241-21806526@events.umich.edu Event Begins: Monday, January 23, 2023 12:00pm
Location: Institute For Social Research
Organized By: Center for Political Studies - Institute for Social Research

In the Tolls of Uncertainty, Sarah Damaske argues unemployment is an institution—like workplaces, families, or schools—that both generates and reproduces inequalities. Like other fundamental parts of American society that are central to adult life, unemployment is governed by state and federal laws and bureaucracies, structured by organizations, and shaped by shared language & customs. And, like other institutions, unemployment differentially shapes people’s resources and has far-reaching consequences beyond the realm of the unemployed. Both the state and the federal government wield enormous influence over the process, from determining whether someone is considered unemployed, to whether they are eligible for unemployment insurance, to how much support they will receive and for how long a duration. The way people access the unemployment system is dependent on their own social location prior to coming into the unemployment system and their experience throughout their unemployment journey is shaped by the resources the unemployed have available when they lose their job. The state unemployment system provides both direct benefits (via unemployment insurance) and acts as a broker to additional resources (through career center services). Unemployment not only generates and reproduces inequalities between the employed and the unemployed, but also amongst the unemployed. Ultimately, the unemployment institution normalizes and legitimates both employment precarity and the resulting inequalities of the new economy.

Join us in person at ISR (Thompson Street) Room 1430.

Or online: Join Zoom Meeting
https://umich.zoom.us/j/95418610585?pwd=Z0cvdkF1T0R2cG1lRDEvVmlnbVdlZz09

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Workshop / Seminar Tue, 17 Jan 2023 14:11:43 -0500 2023-01-23T12:00:00-05:00 2023-01-23T13:00:00-05:00 Institute For Social Research Center for Political Studies - Institute for Social Research Workshop / Seminar PSC Brownbag Series: The Unemployment Institution
PSC Brownbag Series: The Unemployment Institution (January 23, 2023 12:00pm) https://events.umich.edu/event/103546 103546-21807453@events.umich.edu Event Begins: Monday, January 23, 2023 12:00pm
Location: Institute For Social Research
Organized By: Population Studies Center

The PSC Brown Bag Series runs live and on Zoom this year, Mondays from 12 to 12:50 p.m.
Sarah Damaske of Penn State University presents:

The Unemployment Institution 

In the Tolls of Uncertainty, Sarah Damaske argues unemployment is an institution—like workplaces, families, or schools—that both generates and reproduces inequalities. Like other fundamental parts of American society that are central to adult life, unemployment is governed by state and federal laws and bureaucracies, structured by organizations, and shaped by shared language & customs. And, like other institutions, unemployment differentially shapes people’s resources and has far-reaching consequences beyond the realm of the unemployed. Both the state and the federal government wield enormous influence over the process, from determining whether someone is considered unemployed, to whether they are eligible for unemployment insurance, to how much support they will receive and for how long a duration. The way people access the unemployment system is dependent on their own social location prior to coming into the unemployment system and their experience throughout their unemployment journey is shaped by the resources the unemployed have available when they lose their job. The state unemployment system provides both direct benefits (via unemployment insurance) and acts as a broker to additional resources (through career center services). Unemployment not only generates and reproduces inequalities between the employed and the unemployed, but also amongst the unemployed. Ultimately, the unemployment institution normalizes and legitimates both employment precarity and the resulting inequalities of the new economy.

Join us in person at ISR (Thompson Street) Room 1430.

Or online: Join Zoom Meeting
https://umich.zoom.us/j/95418610585?pwd=Z0cvdkF1T0R2cG1lRDEvVmlnbVdlZz09

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Workshop / Seminar Tue, 17 Jan 2023 14:14:50 -0500 2023-01-23T12:00:00-05:00 2023-01-23T13:00:00-05:00 Institute For Social Research Population Studies Center Workshop / Seminar PSC Brownbag Series: The Unemployment Institution
MPSDS JPSM Seminar Series - The Evolution of the Use of Models in Survey Sampling (February 15, 2023 12:00pm) https://events.umich.edu/event/103587 103587-21807518@events.umich.edu Event Begins: Wednesday, February 15, 2023 12:00pm
Location: Off Campus Location
Organized By: Michigan Program in Survey and Data Science

MPSDS JPSM Seminar Series
February 15, 2023
12:00 - 1:00 EST

Richard Valliant, PhD, is a research professor emeritus at the Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, and at the Joint Program in Survey Methodology at the University of Maryland. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, an elected member of the International Statistical Institute, and has been an associate editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association, Journal of Official Statistics, and Survey Methodology.

The Evolution of the Use of Models in Survey Sampling

The use of models in survey estimation has evolved over the last five (or more) decades. This talk will trace some of the developments over time and attempt to review some of the history. Consideration of models for estimating descriptive statistics began as early as the 1940's when Cochran and Jessen proposed linear regression estimators of means. These were early examples of model-assisted estimation since the properties of the Cochran-Jessen estimators were calculated with respect to a random sampling distribution. Model-thinking was used informally through the 1960's to form ratio and linear regression estimators that could in some applications reduce design variances.

In a 1963 Australian Journal of Statistics paper, Brewer presented results for a ratio estimator that were entirely based on a super population model. Royall (Biometrika 1970 and later papers) formalized the theory for a more general prediction approach using linear models. Since that time, the use of models is ubiquitous in the survey estimation literature and has been extended to nonparametric, empirical likelihood, Bayesian, small area, machine learning, and other approaches. There remains a considerable gap between the more advanced techniques in the literature and the methods commonly used in practice.

In parallel to the model developments, the design-based, randomization approach was dominating official statistics in the US largely due to the efforts of Morris Hansen and his colleagues at the US Census Bureau. In 1937 Hansen and others at the Census Bureau designed a follow-on sample survey to a special census of the employed and partially employed because response to the census was incomplete and felt to be inaccurate. The sample estimates were judged to be more trustworthy than those of the census itself. This began Hansen’s career-long devotion to random sampling as the only trustworthy method for obtaining samples from finite populations and for making inferences.

Model-assisted estimation, as discussed in the 1992 book by Särndal, Swensson, and Wretman is a type of compromise where models are used to construct estimators while a randomization distribution is used to compute properties like means and variances. This thinking has led to the popularity of doubly robust approaches where the goal is to have estimators with good properties with respect to both a randomization and a model distribution.

The field has now reached a troubling crossroads in which response rates to many types of surveys have plummeted and nonprobability datasets are touted as a way of obtaining reasonable quality data at low cost. Sophisticated model-based mathematical methods have been developed for estimation from nonprobability samples. In some applications, e.g., administrative data files that are incomplete due to late reporting, these methods may work well. However, in others the quality of nonprobability sample data is irremediably bad as illustrated by Kennedy in her 2022 Hansen lecture. In some situations, we are back in Morris' 1937 situation where standard approaches no longer work. Methods are needed to evaluate whether acceptable estimates can be made from the most suspect data sets. Nonetheless. nonprobability datasets are readily available now, and it is up to the statistical profession to develop good methods for using them.

Michigan Program in Survey and Data Science (MPSDS)
The University of Michigan Program in Survey Methodology was established in 2001 seeking to train future generations of survey and data scientists. In 2021, we changed our name to the Michigan Program in Survey and Data Science. Our curriculum is concerned with a broad set of data sources including survey data, but also including social media posts, sensor data, and administrative records, as well as analytic methods for working with these new data sources. And we bring to data science a focus on data quality — which is not at the center of traditional data science. The new name speaks to what we teach and work on at the intersection of social research and data. The program offers doctorate and master of science degrees and a certificate through the University of Michigan. The program's home is the Institute for Social Research, the world's largest academically-based social science research institute.

Summer Institute in Survey Research Techniques (SISRT)
The mission of the Summer Institute is to provide rigorous and high quality graduate training in all phases of survey research. The program teaches state-of-the-art practice and theory in the design, implementation, and analysis of surveys. The Summer Institute in Survey Research Techniques has presented courses on the sample survey since the summer of 1948, and has offered such courses every summer since. Graduate-level courses through the Program in Survey and Data Science are offered from June 5 through July 28 and available to enroll in as a Summer Scholar.

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Lecture / Discussion Wed, 18 Jan 2023 15:55:19 -0500 2023-02-15T12:00:00-05:00 2023-02-15T13:00:00-05:00 Off Campus Location Michigan Program in Survey and Data Science Lecture / Discussion Flyer
PSC Brownbag Series: The effect of institutional gaps between cohabitation and marriage (March 6, 2023 12:00pm) https://events.umich.edu/event/103548 103548-21807457@events.umich.edu Event Begins: Monday, March 6, 2023 12:00pm
Location: Institute For Social Research
Organized By: Population Studies Center

The PSC Brown Bag Series runs live and on Zoom this year, Mondays from 12 to 12:50 p.m.
Paula Calvo of Arizona State University presents:

The effect of institutional gaps between cohabitation and marriage

This paper examines the effects of institutional differences between marriage and non-marital cohabitation―in dimensions such as child custody laws and property division rules upon separation―on household formation, individual's welfare and child human capital. I first show that, conditional on observable characteristics, cohabiting women have higher labor supply and higher separation rates than married women. They also raise children with lower cognitive outcomes. To rationalize these facts, I model the individuals' life-cycle problem within an equilibrium marriage market framework that features the choice between marriage and cohabitation. I estimate the model on U.S. household data. The results indicate that low-educated cohabiting women receive a lower share of the household's resources than low-educated married women. Moreover, their children accumulate less human capital compared to those born to low-educated married women, explained by lower maternal time investments and higher separation rates between cohabiting couples. In counterfactual simulations, I equalize child custody for married and unmarried parents upon separation. This policy improves the welfare of low-educated cohabiting women. The equilibrium effects are critical for this result: While this policy reduces the welfare of low-educated cohabiting women under the baseline marriage market equilibrium (by weakening their parental rights at separation), in the new equilibrium they are compensated with a higher share of the household's resources. This policy also contributes to closing the human capital gap between children born to low-educated cohabiting and married women.

Join us in person at ISR (Thompson Street) Room 1430.

Or online: Join Zoom Meeting
https://umich.zoom.us/j/95418610585?pwd=Z0cvdkF1T0R2cG1lRDEvVmlnbVdlZz09

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Workshop / Seminar Tue, 17 Jan 2023 14:23:15 -0500 2023-03-06T12:00:00-05:00 2023-03-06T13:00:00-05:00 Institute For Social Research Population Studies Center Workshop / Seminar The effect of institutional gaps between cohabitation and marriage
PSC Brown Bag: Job Applications and Labor Market Flows (March 20, 2023 12:00pm) https://events.umich.edu/event/103586 103586-21807517@events.umich.edu Event Begins: Monday, March 20, 2023 12:00pm
Location: Institute For Social Research
Organized By: Population Studies Center

Job applications have risen over time, yet job-finding rates remain unchanged. Meanwhile, separations have declined. We argue that increased applications raise the probability of a good match rather than the probability of job-finding. Using a search model with multiple applications and costly information, we show that when applications increase, firms invest in identifying good matches, reducing separations. Concurrently, increased congestion and selectivity over which offer to accept temper increases in job-finding rates. Our framework contains testable implications for changes in offers, acceptances, reservation wages, applicants per vacancy, and tenure, objects that enable it to generate the trends in unemployment flows.

Join us in person at ISR (Thompson Street) Room 1430.

Or online: Join Zoom Meeting
https://umich.zoom.us/j/95418610585?pwd=Z0cvdkF1T0R2cG1lRDEvVmlnbVdlZz09

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Workshop / Seminar Wed, 18 Jan 2023 10:50:07 -0500 2023-03-20T12:00:00-04:00 2023-03-20T13:00:00-04:00 Institute For Social Research Population Studies Center Workshop / Seminar PSC Brown Bag: Job Applications and Labor Market Flows
PSC Brownbag Series: Traditional Institutions in Modern Times: Dowries as Pensions When Sons Migrate (March 27, 2023 12:00pm) https://events.umich.edu/event/106123 106123-21813783@events.umich.edu Event Begins: Monday, March 27, 2023 12:00pm
Location: Off Campus Location
Organized By: Population Studies Center

PSC Brown Bag Seminar: Corinne Low (Online only!)
The PSC Brown Bag Series runs Mondays from 12 to 12:50 p.m.

Corinne Low of Wharton, University of Pennsylvania, presents online only:

Traditional Institutions in Modern Times: Dowries as Pensions When Sons Migrate
This paper examines whether an important cultural institution in India – dowry – can enable male migration by increasing liquidity at the time of marriage. We hypothesize that one cost of migration is the disruption of traditional elderly support structures, where sons co-reside with their parents and care for them in their old age. Dowry can attenuate this cost by providing sons and parents with a liquid transfer that eases constraints on income sharing. To test this hypothesis, we collect two novel datasets on property rights over dowry among migrants and among families of migrants. Net transfers of dowry to a man’s parents are common. Consistent with using dowry for income sharing, transfers occur more when sons migrate, especially when they work in higher-earning occupations. Nationally representative data confirms that migration rates are higher in areas with stronger historical dowry traditions. Finally, exploiting a large-scale highway construction program, we show that men from areas with stronger dowry traditions have a higher migration response to reduced migration costs. Despite its potentially adverse consequences, dowry may play a role in facilitating migration and, therefore, economic development
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Workshop / Seminar Mon, 13 Mar 2023 13:49:00 -0400 2023-03-27T12:00:00-04:00 2023-03-27T13:00:00-04:00 Off Campus Location Population Studies Center Workshop / Seminar PSC Brownbag Series: Traditional Institutions in Modern Times: Dowries as Pensions When Sons Migrate