Abstract:
How do labor market opportunities for men and women affect fertility decisions, and do impacts differ by employment type? I study how jobs in the formal sector, in manufacturing, and at export-assembly plants (maquiladoras) in Mexico shape childbirth, selection into fertility, and the timing of births. I adopt two complementary identification strategies. The first strategy exploits exogenous shocks to local demand for male versus female labor using a shift-share index, and the second uses establishment-level data from the universe of maquiladoras to construct an instrumental variable based on large expansions and contractions in plant employment. Results show that positive shocks in the short run to men's employment have large, positive effects on fertility, whereas positive shocks to women's employment have negligible impacts in the short run.