Abstract:
New initiatives to create longitudinal linkages from historical datasets are transforming the study of U.S. economic and demographic history. This paper uses two ground truth samples to provide new evidence on the performance of four automated record-linking algorithms and two commonly used phonetic name-cleaning methods, Soundex and NYSIIS, in historical samples. Our results show high match rates for each algorithm, but we document important shortcomings of each. First, no method (including the ground truth) appears representative of the underlying population. Second, the incidence of type I errors are distressingly high in samples generated by automated methods, ranging from 19 percent to 81 percent. Third, the use of phonetic name cleaning universally increases type I errors by 60 to 100 percent. Finally, erroneous links are strongly correlated with baseline sample characteristics, suggesting that systematic measurement error introduced by different automated linking methods could have substantial (and difficult to sign) effects on parameter estimates. As an illustration, we show that different linking methods are associated with very different estimates of intergenerational income elasticities for the 1920 to 1940 period, ranging from 0.33 to a statistical zero. We conclude with constructive suggestions for improving automated methods without using clerical review or genealogical methods.