We regret that we have had to cancel this lecture but will plan to reschedule during the coming fall semester.

Co-authored by Matthew E. Kahn and Wen-Chi Liao

The Trump Administration's tariffs created a wedge between mutually beneficial trades between China's producers and US consumers. Moving production to nearby Vietnam allows firms to jump the tariff wall. Locations within Vietnam differ in their proximity to China, industrial mix, and existing transport infrastructures such as roads, rails, and ports. We exploit these exogenous attributes to explore Vietnam's new emerging economic geography induced by the US/China Trade War. Using data from 2015 to 2021 on Vietnamese cities and provinces, we conduct a Bartik shift-share analysis to study the effects of the S310 China tariffs. Locations within Vietnam closer to China gain more—a border effect—in output and new FDI, particularly for industries producing goods the US demands. A multiplier effect benefits the local sector, evidenced by retail sales. The border effect relates to global-value-chain restructuring and manufacturing reallocation. We study how the urban lights at night and local air pollution PM2.5 evolve as Vietnam's cities grow. We compare the lessons between Vietnam's urban growth through tacit integration with China during the US/China Trade War and Mexico's growth through joining NAFTA.

Siqi Zheng’s field of specialization is urban and environmental economics and policy, including sustainable urbanization, sustainable real estate, and urbanization in emerging economies. She published in many peer reviewed international journals including the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Nature Human Behaviour, and the Journal of Economic Literature, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Journal of Economic Geography, European Economic Review, Journal of Urban Economics, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Transportation Research Part A, Environment and Planning A, Ecological Economics, Journal of Regional Science, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. A book she has co-authored with Matthew Kahn, "Blue Skies over Beijing: Economic Growth and the Environment in China" (Princeton University Press) was published in 2016. Dr. Zheng has completed or been undertaking research projects granted or entrusted by the World Bank, the MassCPR, MITEI, MIT Portugal, MIT MCSC, the Asian Development Bank, the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, among others. She won the MIT Frank E. Perkins Award for Excellence in Graduate Advising in 2022; and Asian Real Estate Academic & Professional (AsREAP) Woman Achievement Award (by Asian Real Estate Society) in 2023. She received her PhD in urban development and real estate from Tsinghua University in 2005, and did her post-doc research at the Graduate School of Design at Harvard University. Prior to coming to MIT, she was a professor and the director of Hang Lung Center for Real Estate at Tsinghua University, China. Her research website is http://www.siqizheng.com.

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