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Presented By: The Center for the Study of Complex Systems

CSCS Seminar | An allele-based evolution model of the population spread of SARS-CoV-2

Carl Simon, Emeritus Professor of Complex System, Public Policy and Math, University of Michigan

Carl Simon Carl Simon
Carl Simon
Coffee and snacks will be provided. This talk will be recorded for later viewing.

Abstract: We present and analyze a dynamic evolution-oriented model of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a (homogeneous) population. Unlike previous such models, we use alleles at the various virus sites as our basic building blocks – an approach that we find more natural and more effective in studying virus evolution. Even though it is restricted to two virus sites with two alleles at each site, our approach uncovers many insights about virus evolution, including the effects of parameter choices on the timing and patterns of strain evolution, the staying power of the initial (seeded) strain, and the key roles that immunity plays.

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