Attend in person or via Zoom: https://myumi.ch/W6N6d.

Taking a cohort perspective, this presentation examines China’s fertility decline as three distinct ‘waves,’ each shaped by unique cultural shifts. Dr. Cai will analyze the drivers behind these declines and offer predictions about China’s fertility future.

Yong Cai’s research focuses on Chinese demography, especially the one-child policy, including its political causes and its demographic and social effects. He challenges the conventional narrative about how policy drove fertility changes. His research assesses China’s fertility from multiple sources to clarify uncertainties within official statistics. He draws attention to the significant social and demographic challenges created by the policy’s draconian nature, which are disproportionately borne by disadvantaged social classes.