Bracketing the current fixation with the South China Sea, the diplomatic future of Southeast Asia to 2030 will be shaped by general parameters of international developments. General trends of globalization, constrained sovereignty, and demographic revolution are likely to provide a landscape in which interactions will be more intense but not likely to change the basic international matrix. Although the US and China will almost certainly be the primary nodes of the world order, their differences and the diffusion of global contacts create a situation fundamentally different from Cold War bipolarity. In a multinodal world, Southeast Asia’s diplomatic alternatives will be affected by the degree of rivalry between the primary nodes, but the choices will be more interesting than which camp to join.

Co-sponsored by the Ford School of Public Policy

Background paper available upon request: emails to cseas@umich.edu