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Presented By: The Center for the Study of Complex Systems

Black-box learners for white-box epidemic models

Fan Bu

Fall 2026 Complex Systems Seminar Series event graphic featuring Fan Bu, Assistant Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Michigan. Seminar title: “Black-box learners for white-box epidemic models.” The seminar will take place Tuesday, September 22, from 11:30 AM to 1:00 PM in Weiser Hall, Room 747. The graphic includes Fan Bu’s headshot and University of Michigan blue-and-maize branding. Fall 2026 Complex Systems Seminar Series event graphic featuring Fan Bu, Assistant Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Michigan. Seminar title: “Black-box learners for white-box epidemic models.” The seminar will take place Tuesday, September 22, from 11:30 AM to 1:00 PM in Weiser Hall, Room 747. The graphic includes Fan Bu’s headshot and University of Michigan blue-and-maize branding.
Fall 2026 Complex Systems Seminar Series event graphic featuring Fan Bu, Assistant Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Michigan. Seminar title: “Black-box learners for white-box epidemic models.” The seminar will take place Tuesday, September 22, from 11:30 AM to 1:00 PM in Weiser Hall, Room 747. The graphic includes Fan Bu’s headshot and University of Michigan blue-and-maize branding.
Mechanistic epidemic models are attractively interpretable, but fitting realistic models to imperfect data often involves challenging inverse problems. This talk presents two recent projects that explore hybrid approaches that combine deep learning with traditional mechanistic transmission models. First, I will discuss recent attempts of using neural posterior estimation (NPE) for simulation-based inference of stochastic epidemic models. When partial observation and large latent state spaces make likelihood-based inference computationally difficult, NPE learns to invert a stochastic simulator and approximate the posterior distribution of model parameters in a likelihood-free manner. Second, I will present a spatiotemporal epidemic-informed neural network approach based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). This approach incorporates a spatial interaction matrix to account for spatial or geographical dependencies in modeling epidemics across multiple regions (e.g., counties, states, etc.). The interaction matrix can be informed by external data or auxiliary information such as cross-region distance, adjacency, or mobility. These two projects provide practical examples of how flexible “black-box” machine learners can support inference for structured, interpretable “white-box” epidemic models.
Fall 2026 Complex Systems Seminar Series event graphic featuring Fan Bu, Assistant Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Michigan. Seminar title: “Black-box learners for white-box epidemic models.” The seminar will take place Tuesday, September 22, from 11:30 AM to 1:00 PM in Weiser Hall, Room 747. The graphic includes Fan Bu’s headshot and University of Michigan blue-and-maize branding. Fall 2026 Complex Systems Seminar Series event graphic featuring Fan Bu, Assistant Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Michigan. Seminar title: “Black-box learners for white-box epidemic models.” The seminar will take place Tuesday, September 22, from 11:30 AM to 1:00 PM in Weiser Hall, Room 747. The graphic includes Fan Bu’s headshot and University of Michigan blue-and-maize branding.
Fall 2026 Complex Systems Seminar Series event graphic featuring Fan Bu, Assistant Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Michigan. Seminar title: “Black-box learners for white-box epidemic models.” The seminar will take place Tuesday, September 22, from 11:30 AM to 1:00 PM in Weiser Hall, Room 747. The graphic includes Fan Bu’s headshot and University of Michigan blue-and-maize branding.

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