Presented By: Department of Psychology
CCN Forum: Neural Predictors of Crowdsourced Funding
Carolyn Yoon, PhD - Ross Business School, Marketing
ABSTRACT: Although traditional economic and psychological theories assume that individual choice best scales to aggregate choice, some fundamental components of choice reflected in neural activity may provide even more generalizable forecasts. To test whether neural mechanisms could predict choices, study participants made incentive-compatible decisions regarding actual crowdfunding projects. Neural activity in both the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) and medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) in response to projects predicted choices to fund. Of activity in these regions and associated activity in sensory cortices, only NAcc activity generalized to forecast aggregate funding outcomes on the internet weeks later. Further, behavioral measures, did not significantly forecast internet-level funding outcomes. These findings suggest that neural predictors of choice can generalize to forecast market-level outcomes -- even better than the actual choices of individuals.