Presented By: The Center for the Study of Complex Systems
Null models for cultural and social evolution
Mitchell Newberry, Department of Biology, University of Pennsylvania
Analogies between biological and cultural evolution date back to Darwin, yet the analogies have remained loose. Neutral evolution, known to be important in biology, has been proposed as a null model for cultural change, but has not been developed into tests for selection on cultural features. Using inference in time series of alternative word forms and grammatical constructions, I demonstrate a cultural analog of natural selection on a background of neutral evolution. Social evolution, on the other hand, implies selection in a social environment and therefore cannot be described with a neutral model. I propose a model of pure frequency-dependent selection as a generic null model for social evolution, and use inference under the model to illustrate diverse effects of social selection. I show complex forms of frequency dependent selection---including positive and negative frequency-dependent selection at different frequencies---in the copying of baby names, the fashions of dog breeds, and the use of rare languages.
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