Presented By: The Center for the Study of Complex Systems
Complex Systems Seminar | Modeling Human-Technology Interactions and their Implications for Environmental Sustainability
Shelie Miller - Director, Program in the Environment, University of Michigan
ABSTRACT
If we could go back to the early 1900s when mass production of the Model T was just beginning to shape our transportation system and society, what would we do differently? What would have happened if we had perfect foresight and understanding of the complex interactions between automotive technology and human behavior, including changes to transportation infrastructure, urban and suburban design, energy use, and American culture?
While we cannot go back in time, we do have the opportunity to explore these types of questions for current emerging technologies that promise to be similarly transformative to society. Estimating human-technology interactions and their associated environmental impacts at an early design stage provides insights into the overall impact of a new technology and offers the greatest opportunities for improvement.
This talk will present methods to integrate concepts from life cycle assessment, diffusion of innovations, and system dynamics to construct future scenarios that identify plausible options for new technology design or policy development. A case study will be explored that evaluates the food-energy-water effects of refrigerated food supply chains (a.k.a. “the cold chain”) introduced within developing countries. The cold chain presents an excellent example to explore sustainable development from a holistic perspective, including advances in technical innovation, changes to underlying infrastructure, and shifts in human behavior and diets.
Dr. Miller’s research interests center around the life cycle impacts of emerging energy systems. Recent work focuses on the non-carbon aspects of biofuels, such as disruptions to the nitrogen cycle and changes in land use. Interests also include advancing Life Cycle Assessment methods to analyze dynamic and emerging systems, such as hydraulic fracturing in the US and electricity grids in developing countries.
Jonathan W. Bulkley Collegiate Professor in Sustainable Systems
Director, Program in the Environment
Associate Professor, School for Environment and Sustainability
If we could go back to the early 1900s when mass production of the Model T was just beginning to shape our transportation system and society, what would we do differently? What would have happened if we had perfect foresight and understanding of the complex interactions between automotive technology and human behavior, including changes to transportation infrastructure, urban and suburban design, energy use, and American culture?
While we cannot go back in time, we do have the opportunity to explore these types of questions for current emerging technologies that promise to be similarly transformative to society. Estimating human-technology interactions and their associated environmental impacts at an early design stage provides insights into the overall impact of a new technology and offers the greatest opportunities for improvement.
This talk will present methods to integrate concepts from life cycle assessment, diffusion of innovations, and system dynamics to construct future scenarios that identify plausible options for new technology design or policy development. A case study will be explored that evaluates the food-energy-water effects of refrigerated food supply chains (a.k.a. “the cold chain”) introduced within developing countries. The cold chain presents an excellent example to explore sustainable development from a holistic perspective, including advances in technical innovation, changes to underlying infrastructure, and shifts in human behavior and diets.
Dr. Miller’s research interests center around the life cycle impacts of emerging energy systems. Recent work focuses on the non-carbon aspects of biofuels, such as disruptions to the nitrogen cycle and changes in land use. Interests also include advancing Life Cycle Assessment methods to analyze dynamic and emerging systems, such as hydraulic fracturing in the US and electricity grids in developing countries.
Jonathan W. Bulkley Collegiate Professor in Sustainable Systems
Director, Program in the Environment
Associate Professor, School for Environment and Sustainability
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