Presented By: The Center for the Study of Complex Systems
Complex Systems Seminar | Markov genealogy processes for exact phylodynamic inference
Aaron King, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Center for the Study of Complex Systems; University of MIchigan
THIS WILL BE A HYBRID SEMINAR
WEISER HALL ROOM 747 (limit 30, mask required)
https://umich.zoom.us/j/96616169868 Passcode: CSCS
Abstract: We describe an approach to phylodynamics that unifies and extends existing likelihood-based methods for extracting information from virus genealogies to parameterize pathogen transmission models. While existing methods rely on approximations that are often violated in practice, our approach yields exact expressions for the likelihood. Specifically, we introduce a class of genealogy-valued Markov processes, induced by population-scale transmission models and show how these lead to a nonlinear filtering equation. The theory is mathematically rigorous and leads directly to computationally efficient inference algorithms.
WEISER HALL ROOM 747 (limit 30, mask required)
https://umich.zoom.us/j/96616169868 Passcode: CSCS
Abstract: We describe an approach to phylodynamics that unifies and extends existing likelihood-based methods for extracting information from virus genealogies to parameterize pathogen transmission models. While existing methods rely on approximations that are often violated in practice, our approach yields exact expressions for the likelihood. Specifically, we introduce a class of genealogy-valued Markov processes, induced by population-scale transmission models and show how these lead to a nonlinear filtering equation. The theory is mathematically rigorous and leads directly to computationally efficient inference algorithms.
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