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Presented By: Department of Statistics

Statistics Department Seminar Series: Alicia Carriquiry, Distinguished Professor, Department of Statistics, Director of the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence, Iowa State University

"On the validity of forensic pattern comparison disciplines"

Alicia Carriquiry Alicia Carriquiry
Alicia Carriquiry
Abstract: Evidence from a crime scene including fingerprints and firearm markings on bullets is evaluated by examiners by comparing their image to one or more reference images. Typically, the examination is purely visual and results in a categorical conclusion such as “the print was made by the suspect’s finger”. How valid are these conclusions and the methods that lead to them?

For pattern comparison disciplines, black box studies are considered the ``gold standard’’ for assessing this validity. In this type of study, participants are presented with a series of test kits and are asked to reach a conclusion as they would in real case work. Black box studies have been conducted in multiple forensic disciplines in the last few years, and published results suggest that examiners hardly ever make an error.

Or not? We argue that none of the forensic black box studies that have been conducted in the past decade permit estimation of error rates, either for the discipline or for individual examiners. Most of the studies violate basic experimental design rules and lack statistical justification. In several cases, estimated error rates are unrealistically low, yet are used in courts to shore up testimony that is often based on nothing other than someone’s opinion.

We propose some minimal statistical criteria for black box studies and describe some of the data that need to be available to plan and implement such studies. Depending on the data that are published, we formulate different hierarchical models to jointly estimate the missing data, and the set of plausible average error rates.

Collaborators in this work include Profs. Kori Khan and Heike Hofmann from Iowa State and Susan VanderPlas from University of Nebraska Lincoln.


Alicia Carriquiry is a Distinguished Professor of Liberal Arts and Sciences and a Professor of Statistics at Iowa State University. She researches applications of statistics in human nutrition, bioinformatics, forensic sciences and traffic safety, and has published over 100 peer-reviewed articles in corresponding academic journals. She received an MSc in animal sci­ence from the University of Illinois, and an MSc and a PhD in statistics and animal genetics from Iowa State University.

Dr. Carriquiry is the lead investigator for the CSAFE program, providing scientific oversight and research expertise. Along with Dr. Stern and Dr. Daniels, she was among the first to question the probative value of bullet lead analysis. A 2000 report to the FBI that suggested the probability of a coincidental match might not be negligible led to the establishment of a NAS committee to explore the issue. Carriquiry also served as a member of the NAS committee on ballistic imaging.

Professor Carriquiry has spoken at the International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics (ICFIS) and participates in the Forensic Sciences certificate program at Iowa State University. She also serves on the OSAC subcommittee on Materials and Trace Evidence, and was recently named to the National Academy of Medicine and elected as a fellow to AAAS.

https://forensicstats.org/alicia-l-carriquiry/
Alicia Carriquiry Alicia Carriquiry
Alicia Carriquiry

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