Presented By: Department of Economics
The Efficiency-Equity Tradeoff of the Corporate Income Tax: Evidence from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
Patrick Kennedy, University of California, Berkeley
This paper studies the effects of an historically large federal corporate income tax cut on U.S. firms and workers, leveraging quasi-experimental policy variation from the 2017 law known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. To identify causal effects, we use employer-employee matched federal tax records and an event study design comparing similarly-sized firms in the same industry that faced divergent tax changes due to their pre-existing legal status. Reductions in marginal income tax rates cause increases in sales, profits, investment, and employment, with responses driven by firms in capital-intensive industries. Workers’ earnings gains are concentrated in executive pay and in the top 10% of the within-firm income distribution, while workers in the bottom 90% of the distribution see no change in earnings. Interpreted through the lens of a stylized model, our estimates imply that a $1 marginal reduction in corporate tax revenue generates an additional $0.10 in output, with 78% of gains flowing to the top 10% of the income distribution.