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Presented By: Department of Economics

Evaluating Policy Counterfactuals: A VAR-Plus Approach

Alisdair McKay, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Alisdair McKay Headshot Alisdair McKay Headshot
Alisdair McKay Headshot
In a rich family of linearized structural macroeconomic models, the counterfactual evolution of the macro-economy under alternative policy rules is pinned down by just two objects: first, reduced-form projections with respect to a large information set; and second, the dynamic causal effects of policy shocks. In particular, no assumptions about the structural shocks affecting the economy are needed. We propose to recover these two sufficient statistics using a “VAR-Plus” approach, and apply it to evaluate several monetary policy counterfactuals.

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