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Economic Theory: The Wisdom of a Confused Crowd: Model Based Inference

George Mailath, University of Pennsylvania

Economics Economics
Abstract
“Crowds” are often regarded as “wiser” than individuals, and pre-diction markets are often regarded as effective methods for harnessing this wisdom. If the agents in prediction markets are Bayesians who share a common model and prior belief, then the no-trade theorem implies that we should see no trade in the market. But if the agents in the market are not Bayesians who share a common model and prior belief, then it is no longer obvious that the market outcome aggre-gates or conveys information. In this paper, we examine a stylized prediction market comprised of Bayesian agents whose inferences are based on different models of the underlying environment. We explore a basic tension—the differences in models that give rise to the possi-bility of trade generally preclude the possibility of perfect information aggregation.

Joint with Larry Samuelson
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When and Where

Map Lorch Hall - 301

April 2019

2:30pm - 4:00pm

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