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Presented By: Michigan Program in Survey and Data Science

MPSDS JPSM Seminar Series - How to Draw a Nationally-Representative Sample: Updating and Reassessing Monitoring the Future's Sampling Procedures

Richard Miech - Monitoring the Future

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MPSDS JPSM Seminar Series
October 19, 2022
12:00 - 1:00 pm EDT

Professor Richard Miech is Principal Investigator of Monitoring the Future, which since 1975 has drawn annual, nationally-representative samples of adolescents and tracked trends in adolescent drug use. His work focuses on trends in substance use, with an emphasis on disentangling how these trends vary by age, historical period, and birth cohort membership.

The national estimates of drug use from Monitoring the Future (MTF) serve as a gold standard in the field and are a key source of information for research, U.S. policymakers, and nonprofit organizations that seek to reduce teen drug use. For sample selection MTF uses a multistage, random sampling procedure that consists of (1) selection of a specific geographic areas, (2) selection of one or more high schools in each area, and (3) selection of students within each school. MTF has recently begun a revisit and overhaul of its sampling procedures, which were developed more than three decades ago. In this talk Professor Miech discusses this overhaul, including sampling challenges and issues that have arisen over the years, as well as opportunities to streamline and improve MTF sampling with new technology.

The University of Michigan Program in Survey Methodology was established in 2001 seeking to train future generations of survey and data scientists. In 2021, we changed our name to the Michigan Program in Survey and Data Science. Our curriculum is concerned with a broad set of data sources including survey data, but also including social media posts, sensor data, and administrative records, as well as analytic methods for working with these new data sources. And we bring to data science a focus on data quality — which is not at the center of traditional data science. The new name speaks to what we teach and work on at the intersection of social research and data. The program offers doctorate and master of science degrees and a certificate through the University of Michigan. The program's home is the Institute for Social Research, the world's largest academically-based social science research institute.

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